Sit or Start for Week 1

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Sit DEREK CARR vs Panthers Carr returns as the QB1 for the Saints in 2024 after he restructured his contract this offseason. Carr finished the 2023 season averaging just the 24th-most Fantasy points per game at QB, but he did provide managers with spike weeks. He finished as a top-12 QB six times, including three of the last four Saints games. Carr provides no rushing upside, however, and at this stage of his career projects best as a QB2. He should only be rostered in deep one-QB formats and as a QB2/3 in two-QB and Superflex formats. At first glance, you may believe that he gets a plus match-up this week against the hapless Panthers. The problme is that the Panthers pass defense was actually more than respectable last season. In fact, the Panthers ranked #1 in passing yards allowed and #3 against fantasy QBs in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Panthers, he passed for just 119 yards.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 18 31 58.06 219 4 1 1

Sit AARON RODGERS vs 49ers Name recognition and dreams of past performance led Rodgers to be over-drafted in many leagues in 2023. Fantasy owners wised up in 2024 as Rodgers was drafted as a mid-range QB2 in the double-digit rounds of one-quarterback leagues. The good news is that Rodgers is expected to be fully recovered from his torn Achilles when the season starts, but he's still a 40-year-old QB who has thrown one pass in an NFL game in the last 18 months (and was kept in wraps throughout preseason). That combined with an opening game at San Francisco, who ranked #2 against fantasy QBs in 2023, means we really don't want to trust him as a starter at the beginning of the season. Still, with Garrett Wilson as his WR1, Breece Hall as a great pass-catching back, and the potential of Mike Williams and Malachi Corley, Rodgers does have some potential upside if he still has it.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 23 37 62.16 255 5 1 1

Sit Deshaun Watson vs Cowboys Watson returns after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 10 last year. The potential that we saw in Houston (which has yet to materialize in Cleveland) has led true believers to continue to draft him as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback. In 2023, Watson appeared in six games, and he was start-worthy in three of them. When healthy, he still has the potential to be among the best Fantasy quarterbacks, but that 50/50 weekly proposition scares us. The good news for Watson is the Browns added Jerry Jeudy this offseason to an already quality receiving corps with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku. And Watson can still be a decent rusher with at least 22 rushing yards in four of six games in 2023. If Watson can stay healthy all season, he could emerge as a potential starter in all leagues, which could reap dividends if you made a cheap investment this year with a late-round pick. We advise against testing that notion to start the season against a formidable Dallas D.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 17 30 56.66 224 19 1 1

Risks...

JACOBY BRISSETT vs Bengals
- Brissett joined the New England Patriots this offseason and he'll provide veteran leadership for Drake Maye. We are currently projecting Maye to start more games in 2024 than Brissett but Brissett will start Week 1. He's likely on squads in Superflex leagues and we won't view him as a great starter even in that format. In 11 starts in 2022, he averaged just 17.5 Fantasy points per game and he had a true No. 1 receiver on that roster in Amari Cooper, something the Patriots look like they're without.

Patrick Mahomes vs Ravens
- Mahomes was one of the top 4 quarterbacks taken in Fantasy drafts. To some, that could be surprising since he was 10th among passers last season with just 20.9 Fantasy points per game. But others who choose to look forward will acknowledge new Chiefs wide receivers Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy as reasons why Mahomes' numbers could resurge. Both wideouts offer impressive speed and can stretch defenses, perfect for Mahomes to either connect for splash plays or find wide-open options closer to the line of scrimmage. And if Travis Kelce isn't forced to play through injuries like he did last year, Mahomes' receiving corps will be quite strong. Frankly, no elite-tier quarterback saw his situation improve more than Mahomes this offseason, a scary thought for his opponents and a magnificent thought for those who have him in their lineups. That said, temper your expectations for Week 1. First, the Chiefs under Andy Reid have notoriously started off the season slowly. Second, Mahomes will be without Hollywood Brown this week. Lastly, the Ravens have a stout defense and will be looking for revenge for the Chiefs whipping them in the AFC Championship game months ago. The Ravens ranked #2 in passing TDs allowed and #1 against fantasy QBs in 2023.

Kyler Murray vs Bills
- Optimism is high for Murray to return to his top-10 Fantasy QB form now that he's completely over his ACL rehab from 2023 and is armed with outstanding rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in the Cardinals passing game. In eight starts last season, Murray averaged 20.8 Fantasy points per game, notching at least 22 in half of them. That was good for 11th-best among quarterbacks in that time frame, continuing his trend of being a top-12 finisher in per-game Fantasy average (he was ninth in 2022 and seventh in 2021 and 2020). He is a worthy starter in one QB leagues if you decided to wait late to address the QB position and an every-week starter in Superflex/two-QB drafts. This first week may be a tough one as the Cardinals must travel across country to meet the Bills, who ranked #3 in passing TDs allowed in 2023, in an early time zone.

Dak Prescott vs Browns
- Prescott was a top 5 fantasy QB in most formats in 2023 -- but will he repeat in 2024? His ADP as QB9, suggests that most fantasy owners think not. If you wanted to look for reasons Prescott won't repeat, you start with his 6.1% pass TD rate, which was about a point higher than his career average. However, he's been at 6% for three years now. The truth is, he has essentially been a top-five Fantasy quarterback since the start of 2020, except for 2022 which was marred by injury and some terrible turnover luck. And if you were worried about CeeDee Lamb's status, be happy to know that he is back in the fold after signing a huge contract. So if you did draft him as a QB9 or later, you may have received pretty good value here. You are probably starting him this week in most formats, but he wary of him in DFS as he faces the Browns, who ranked #2 in passing yards allowed in 2023.

Brock Purdy vs Jets
- Easily one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, Purdy has solidified himself as a solid Fantasy QB thanks to averaging close to 20 Fantasy points in each of his first two seasons. In fact he's hit that 20-point mark in nearly 70% of his regular-season games. It's not because of volume -- Purdy averaged 27.8 passes per game last year, putting him 22nd among 23 qualifiers in the stat. It's what he does with the ball: Purdy was first among qualifying passers in yards per attempt (9.6), second in TD rate (7.0%) and second in completion rate (69.4%). In fact if he threw more passes more often, he'd challenge to be among the best quarterbacks in Fantasy. As it stands, he's consistent with a high floor in any matchup with high scoring potential. That said, as good he has been, there is a ceiling to his talent level, which is why he is largely viewed as a "system" QB in Shanahan's offense, surrounded by elite talent. That elite talent could be slow to start the season as Aiyuk was a holdout until just last week (as was OT Trent Williams) and rookie Pearsall will be on the shelf for at least the next 4 weeks after a horrific shooting incident. Note also that Purdy will face an elite Jets defense that ranked #3 in passing yards allowed and #4 against fantasy QBs in 2023.

Anthony Richardson vs Texans
- Richardson's combination of arm strength, arm talent, and rushing upside earned him a top-10 ranking across the board from our experts heading into his first NFL season. Richardson was a Fantasy superstar immediately, averaging 25.9 points per game in his two full starts. This would put him on pace to be the QB1 overall over a full season. Of course, Richardson didn't play a full season and instead suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. In 2024, Richardson was once again one of the highest-upside QBs in Fantasy Football, but he will carry a boom-or-bust profile due to his injury profile. The Colts added Adonai Mitchell at WR in the draft and Richardson will get the benefit of playing with Jonathan Taylor in 2024. If he stays healthy, Richardson will be a league-winning player. He will start this season with a tough draw facing the Texans (who knocked him out last season) and ranked #1 in passing TDs allowed in 2023. For what it is worth, when he played the Texans, he passed for just 56 yards and tossed 0 TD passes -- so there is a good chance that much of his fantasy production will have to come on the ground.

Bryce Young vs Saints
- Young finished 30th in Fantasy points per game as a rookie behind the likes of Zach Wilson and Aidan O'Connell. In 2024, his outlook has changed due to the significant investment the Panthers made to surround Young with more help. For starters, the Panthers hired Dave Canales to run the offense fresh off the job he did in Tampa reviving Baker Mayfield and generating a playoff-caliber offense. They upgraded the offensive line with the signings of Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in free agency and they traded up into Round 1 to draft WR Xavier Legette. Young has looked good in the preseason, but he still projects as a QB who should not be on your radar in one-QB leagues and only as a high-upside QB3 or back-end QB2 in Superflex and two-QB leagues. For what it is worth, in two games against the Saints as a rookie, Young averaged 145 passing yards and 0.5 TD passes.

Start Jordan Love vs Eagles Love did more than hold his own in his first year as the starter in Green Bay in 2023. He proved to be a star, and Fantasy managers benefitted in a big way. This season, Love was drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in most leagues. Last year, Love took over for Aaron Rodgers and averaged 22.5 Fantasy points per game, including seven outings with at least 26.3 Fantasy points. He did an amazing job spreading the ball around to a diverse receiving corps that's loaded with talent, and all of those weapons return in 2024, hopefully with a fully healthy Christian Watson. There's a lot to love about Love this year -- and we really LOVE him this week. He will face a team that ranked #31 in passing TDs allowed and ranked #32 against fantasy QBs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 25 38 65.78 297 19 3 1

Start Baker Mayfield vs Commanders Mayfield had a major bounceback season in 2023 while finding an immediate rapport with Mike Evans. He finished the season as Fantasy QB11 in typical scoring, passing for over 4000 yards. Mayfield will benefit from having another offseason to improve his rapport with Evans and with Chris Godwin now one full year removed from an ACL tear and a hopefully healthier Tampa offensive line. Mayfield makes for a solid backup in one-QB leagues and a QB2 for two-QB and Superflex formats. He should start off the season strong against a suspect Washington defense. The Commanders ranked #32 in passing TDs allowed, #32 in passing yards allowed and #31 against fantasy QBs in 2023. We love his value in DFS this week.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 24 36 66.66 288 12 3 1

Start MATTHEW STAFFORD vs Lions At 36 years old, this might be Stafford's last shot at being a quality Fantasy option. His past two seasons have been very up-and-down but he finished 2023 with 23.4 Fantasy points per game in his final seven when both he and his O-line were healthy. He, like Fantasy managers, benefited from the ascension of Puka Nacua, plus he's got supreme confidence in Cooper Kupp. If he can keep that momentum going with a unit that added guard Jonah Jackson to better protect him, then there's potential for another good season. Shootouts in the NFC West would further pad his stats. Best of all, Stafford is nowhere close to being drafted as a top-12 Fantasy passer, making him an outrageous bargain pick as either a late-round backup in one-QB leagues or a sneaky-good No. 2 QB after the first 15 passers in Superflex/two-QB leagues. Start him with confidence (especially in DFS) this week. He will face his former team (the Lions) that ranked #28 against fantasy QBs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Comp. Att. Comp % Pass Yds Rush Yds TDs INTs 23 36 63.88 301 3 3 1

Rewards...

Josh Allen vs Cardinals
- Allen has been the best quarterback in Fantasy Football for the past four seasons, but he's not our consensus No. 1 QB in 2024. This offseason the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis from their receiving corps and replaced them with Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They also retained Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Under Brady, Allen averaged 2.5 fewer pass attempts and 18 fewer pass yards per game. That didn't matter last year, because Allen ran for 15 touchdowns, but we don't want to count on any QB repeating that type of outlier season. You probably drafted Allen as the first or second quarterback in your Fantasy draft, so don't get cute to start the season. He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured. Note also that in the Cardinals he faces a team that that ranked #30 in passing TDs allowed and was #29 against fantasy QBs in 2023.

Jayden Daniels vs Buccaneers
- Daniels enters the NFL with as much Fantasy Football upside as a quarterback possibly could. He showed that upside in his final season at LSU when he threw 40 touchdown passes and ran for another 11. But this isn't just about him being older than his competition, as Daniels averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt over 338 attempts as a 19-year-old freshman at Arizona State as well. Now he arrives in Washington with Terry McLaurin to help him excel in the NFL. Positive camp reports led Daniels to be drafted as a top 12 QB in many formats (in Dynasty, Daniels was in consideration for the 1.01 in Superflex leagues). Just know that if he hits his true ceiling, we'll probably feel silly for putting anyone in front of him! He will face a team that ranked #30 in passing yards allowed in 2023.

Jalen Hurts vs Packers
- In most formats, Hurts was drafted as a top-three quarterback. Hurts' passing efficiency took a step back in 2023, with his yards per attempt and touchdown rate both falling more than 10% from his career highs in 2022. He made up for part of that dropoff with a career-high (and NFL record, shared with Josh Allen) 15 rushing touchdowns. We expect the arrival of Kellen Moore to be a positive for Hurts' passing efficiency and Saquon Barkley should do more with his targets than the running backs did last year as well. That should help make up for any regression in terms of rushing touchdowns. After all, we aren't entirely sure the tush push will work as well without Jason Kelce. Hurts' Dynasty floor is helped by the long-term deals signed by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this offseason. Bottom line, if he is on your roster he better me in your line-up.

Gardner Minshew vs Chargers
- Minshew has been named the Raiders starting quarterback to begin the 2024 season. Minshew fit in well with the Colts in 2023 and settled in as a QB2 in Fantasy. While he had spike weeks (QB2 and QB6 finishes), he also struggled to finish weeks inside the top 12 at QB in all but three of his games. Minshew joins a Raiders group with talented pass catchers in Davante Adams, Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, but what should also be a run-first offense under coach Antonio Pierce. Minshew is a back-end QB2 without long-term certainty as a starting option, so don't get too attached to him in SuperFlex leagues. As long as he is the starter, we do like him as an occasional low-priced DFS play or streamer in Superflex leagues. This could be one of those weeks as he takes on the Chargers who ranked #31 in passing yards allowed and #30 against fantasy QBs in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Chargers, he passed for 215 and tossed 3 TD passes.

Tua Tagovailoa vs Jaguars
- Tagovailoa is a borderline QB1 worthy of a start in favorable match-ups. The Dolphins QB has shown flashes of the upside we believe exists in him, but never for a full season. Last year he was QB4 through the first eight weeks of the season and QB10 through Week 13. From that point forward he had just one game with more than 240 yards passing and just one game with multiple touchdown passes. That type of letdown in the Fantasy playoffs will surely cause some Fantasy managers to shy away, but he did finish with a league-best 4,624 passing yards and a second year in a row of about eight yards per attempt. With Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all still in Miami, there is plenty of reason to hope that Tagovailoa maintains his breakout for a full season in 2024. The good news for Tua owners, of course, is that the season is brand new, which means that we can expect to see the "Good" Tua before the potential melt-down. So roll with him with confidence.

Sit Ezekiel Elliott vs Browns Elliott rejoined the Cowboys in the offseason and it sure looks like he'll get every chance to be their 1A running back once again. We're not expecting a return to what Elliott once was. While Elliott's age and efficiency are both concerns, it is worth noting how much he mattered after Rhamondre Stevenson went down last year. Elliott averaged 15.9 PPR Fantasy points per game in the final six games of the season, which was good enough to make him a top-12 running back. He also averaged more than six targets per game in that stretch, and we don't expect him to have that type of workload in the passing game in Dallas. Still, we wouldn't exactly be shocked if he scored double-digit touchdowns and finished as a top-24 back. Regardless, the wear-and-tear does not bode well in an offense that was mostly pass-happy last season and faces a strong Cleveland defense this week.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 12 41 1 4 0

Sit Isiah Pacheco vs Ravens In the 15 games in which Pacheco served as the Chiefs' feature back in 2023 (including the playoffs), he had at least 15 touches and scored at least 15 PPR points 10 times. And now it appears Pacheco will be the Chiefs' primary running back this season without much competition, opening the door for him to keep getting 15-plus touches per week. He'll benefit greatly from that workload, something Pacheco needs given his lack of big-play ability. Any improvement to his efficiency will make him an outstanding Fantasy running back with the potential to put up big numbers regardless of the opponent. As a borderline RB1/RB2 in fantasy, you probably have to start him most weeks. We are bit wary of doing so in the Thursday night inaugural game of the season against a stout Baltimore defense, that ranked amongst the elite against the run in 2023.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 16 56 1 7 0

Sit Tony Pollard vs Bears Kast season saw Pollard's first shot at being a feature back not go as planned. He received 55 more carries than the year before and produced two fewer yards on the ground. He saw 12 more targets and had 60 fewer receiving yards. Needless to say, the efficiency regressed with volume. But that may not be the full story. Pollard himself has said he wasn't 100% to start the season and his rushing production did pick up in the second half. In Tennessee he'll compete for touches with Tyjae Spears and while we expect Pollard to be the 1A, we do envision a close split. For that reason we see Pollard as a low-end No. 2 running back most weeks. This week against a surprising tough Bears defense, we're not even sure that we would recommend him as a flex. The Bears ranked #2 in rushing TDs allowed and #1 in rushing yards allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 9 38 3 13 0

Risks...

Ty Chandler vs Giants
-  The defense ranked #4 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Chandler will open the season as the No. 2 running back for the Vikings, and he's worth drafting as a sleeper with a late-round pick in all leagues. Aaron Jones will open the year as the starter in Minnesota, but the 29-year-old struggled to stay healthy in 2023 with the Packers. Chandler started last season as the backup to Alexander Mattison, but Chandler looked like the best running back in Minnesota to close the season. He finished the year with six games with double digits in touches, and Chandler averaged 12.9 PPR points in those outings. We'll see how Kevin O'Connell plans to use Jones and Chandler in tandem, but don't be surprised if Chandler ends up as the more valuable Vikings running back, especially at a reduced cost.

Gus Edwards vs Raiders
- Edwards signed with the Chargers this offseason, and he's expected to open the year as the No. 1 running back in Los Angeles. He'll compete with J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal for touches, but Edwards should lead the team in carries, rushing yards and touchdowns if he stays healthy. And this is a favorable situation to play for Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who was with Edwards in Baltimore as well. Edwards, 29, set career highs in 2023 with the Ravens in carries (198), rushing yards (810), rushing touchdowns (13), receptions (12) and receiving yards (180). He's unlikely to become a threat in the passing game, but Edwards could have another big season on the ground. He has the potential to be a top-24 running back in all leagues. We do like the match-up against the Raiders but recommend being patient and waiting to see what the timeshare looks like for the 3 RBs.

Jahmyr Gibbs vs Rams
- Gibbs enters his sophomore campaign looking to build off his productive rookie season in 2023. We like Gibbs as a No. 1 running back in all leagues. As a rookie, Gibbs was a star, averaging 16.1 PPR points per game, including six outings with at least 21.5 PPR points in his final 11 contests. Only seven running backs saw more targets than Gibbs' 71, and his 52 catches were tied for the ninth-most at the position. General manager Brad Holmes said in May that Gibbs should "see more of the load" this season, which could come at the expense of David Montgomery, who out-carried Gibbs 219-182. Even if Montgomery continues to get more carries than Gibbs, he should still have the chance for 250-plus total touches. And Gibbs scored 11 total touchdowns in 2023 (10 rushing). Gibbs should have the chance for another big year in 2024. In most formats you are stating him this week, but he may not be a great play (at his price) in DFS given the tough match-up against the Rams, who ranked #1 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Breece Hall vs 49ers
- We were comfortable recommending Hall as early as No. 2 overall, with Christian McCaffrey being the only player that all of our experts agree should be drafted before him. Hall finished as RB2 overall last year despite the fact he was coming off an ACL injury and he only scored five rushing touchdowns. He should be fully healthy to start 2024 and the return of Aaron Rodgers should create more scoring opportunities. Hall has been remarkably good at creating big plays, with both a rush and a reception of more than 50 yards in each of his first two years in the league. A revamped offensive line and better quarterback play should mean fewer plays where he's tackled behind the line of scrimmage. No one should be surprised if Hall is the most valuable player in Fantasy this season. So, long story short, he remains an every-week starter. We just want to remind you to temper expectations this week against the 49ers, who ranked #3 in rushing yards allowed in 2023.

Najee Harris vs Falcons
- Harris enters this season playing for a new contract, and we'll see if that motivation helps him perform at a high level this year. We view Harris as a low-end No. 2 running back in the majority of leagues. There are several reasons to like Harris this season. He dropped weight this offseason and is around 235 pounds, which is a plus. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help the run game, and Harris remains the best option to carry the ball in Pittsburgh's offense. And the quarterback play for the Steelers should be better with the addition of Russell Wilson. But Harris also has to contend with Jaylen Warren, who is among the best backup running backs in the NFL. That said, Harris has three seasons in a row with at least 255 carries, 1,034 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. His role in the passing game has decreased each season, which is a negative, but hopefully the Steelers lean heavily on Harris with his contract expiring. He's no longer a Fantasy star, but Harris should be serviceable as a low-end starter most weeks. This may not be one of those weeks against the Falcons, whose defense ranked #5 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Chuba Hubbard vs Saints
- Hubbard wasn't expected to make much of a Fantasy impact in 2023 but went on to earn the lead role in Carolina. From Week 6 on (when he took over the role), Hubbard finished just inside the RB2 range (RB24 in points per game) while averaging just under 20 touches per game. The Panthers selected RB Jonathon Brooks with early draft capital in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he is returning from a torn ACL he suffered midseason in his final year at Texas and will be on the shelf for several weeks. Hubbard opens the season as a lead back and ultimately will serve as an excellent option for drafters who went the zero or hero-RB roster builds. Hubbard gets a tough call in week 1 against the Saints who were tough on fantasy RBs in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Saints, he rushed 23 times for 87 yards and scored 0 TDs on the ground.

Josh Jacobs vs Eagles
- Jacobs is expected to be the featured back for the Packers and a candidate to be a top-12 Fantasy RB. While his 2023 season with the Raiders was marred by injuries and a preseason holdout, his 2022 was outstanding as he led the NFL in rushing yards. In that 2022 season, Jacobs handled 15-plus touches in 15 games, averaging 20.8 PPR points in those games (and 19.3 on the season). In 2023, he had 11 games with 15-plus touches and averaged 15.1 PPR points (13.9 for the season). As it is for most running backs, Jacobs has proven to be productive when in a position to get 15 or more touches. In Matt LaFleur's five years as Packers head coach, at least one running back has had at least 15 touches in 67 of 83 regular-season games. That workload should bode very well for Jacobs as long as he's healthy. While we like Jacobs for the long haul, we don't love his match-up against the Eagles to start the season.

Zack Moss vs Patriots
- Moss joins a Bengals backfield that leaned on Joe Mixon (he had the fifth-highest snap percentage among all running backs) in 2023. With Chase Brown as the main competition behind Moss, the veteran who came over from the Colts should have an excellent opportunity to carve out a lead role for himself. Brown is an explosive talent, but he's 5-foot-9, 200 pounds and unlikely to claim the lead role. Moss should see scoring opportunities and settle in as an RB2. While the Bengals are heavily favored to take care of business against the Pats in week 1, one thing that the Patriots do sport is a strong run defense. The defense ranked #4 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Bijan Robinson vs Steelers
- The hype around Robinson led to first-round Fantasy draft capital in Year 1 in almost all leagues and formats. Those who drafted Robinson were disappointed in his production as he finished with the 17th-most Fantasy points per game (PPR). Former Falcons play caller Arthur Smith afforded Robinson just the 25th-most touches among all RBs as a rookie. The key areas Smith could have gotten Robinson the ball more were in the red zone and in the passing game, and the expectation is that new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will do just that. Zac Robinson joins the Falcons after working on the Rams staff and fresh off a 2023 season where Kyren Williams led all RBs in touches per game. The coaching change plus how the addition of Kirk Cousins raises the ceiling of the entire offense are the two key factors in why Robinson was drafted around the same range or earlier (mid-to-late Round 1) than he was as a rookie. Robinson is one of a handful of players who can challenge Christian McCaffrey as the highest-scoring non-QB in 2024. Suffice to say that you are starting him every week. We do recommend looking for better value in DFS this week, though, as the Sttelers possessed the #3 defense in rushing TDs allowed in 2023.

Pierre Strong Jr. vs Cowboys
-  He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). The defense ranked #3 against fantasy Kickers in 2024.

Kyren Williams vs Lions
- Williams should have the opportunity to try and replicate his breakout campaign from a year ago, which is why he was drafted as a top-10 RB, but injury issues, a prized rookie and a treacherous track record for Rams RBs are concerning. Williams missed spring practices with a foot issue seemingly caused by extreme workouts. The third-year back has now suffered four injuries to his feet or ankles since entering the NFL. He'll have to fend off losing touches to rookie Blake Corum, who was the ballyhooed feature back for Michigan for two seasons. Lastly, Williams was the first running back to total at least 1,000 yards under Rams coach Sean McVay since Todd Gurley, who happened to be the last Rams rusher to total 1,000-plus yards in consecutive seasons (2017-18). Williams was amazing in 2023, leading RBs in touches per game (21.7) and finishing top four in total touchdowns (15), yards per rush (5.0) and PPR points per game (21.2). If the workload is there and he stays healthy, he should be awesome, but those aren't promised given the developments over past few months. If you did draft him, you'll probably be starting him. Just be aware that the Lions run defense, which ranked #2 in rushing yards allowed and #2 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Start AARON JONES SR. vs Giants Jones signed with the Vikings this offseason after being released by the Packers, and he has the chance to remain a No. 2 Fantasy running back this year. Jones is worth drafting as early as Round 6 in the majority of leagues. With the Vikings, Jones should lead the team in touches, and his main competition for playing time is Ty Chandler, which is a plus for Jones. Minnesota's offense also has the chance to be explosive, and Jones should be able to make plays all over the field, especially in the passing game. But at 29, Jones has to prove he can stay healthy, which was a problem in 2023 in Green Bay. He missed six games and parts of others, mostly due to hamstring injuries, but he finished the season strong with five games in a row with at least 108 rushing yards, including the playoffs. Hopefully that's the running back we see all season. Don't overvalue Jones based on his name and history, but at the right price he can be a low-end starter or flex in all leagues. We love for him to get off to a great start against the Giants, who ranked #30 in rushing TDs allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 17 86 3 24 1

Start Alvin Kamara vs Panthers Kamara was one of the best value picks in all of Fantasy Football in 2023, but a declining efficiency level and a potential holdout made drafters leery to trust him again. While it was excellent that Kamara led all RBs with a whopping 6.62 targets per game last season, Kamara still lost out on short-yardage touchdowns to Taysom Hill and also proceeded to notch a third consecutive season without a rush of over 30 yards. Kamara also did not have a catch of 30-plus yards in 2023, the first time that happened in his career. While his efficiency is down, his volume has been and still figures to be good, especially in an offense called by new coordinator Klint Kubiak. The good news for patient owners is that the holdout never materialized -- but there are concerns about Kamara being good in his age-29 season, but we think he was a bargain for owners who landed him as a Round 4-5 pick. Kubiak's system does fit Kamara nicely. To start the season, he will face a team that ranked #32 in rushing TDs allowed in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Panthers, he rushed for 56 and scored 1 TD on the ground in just 12 carries.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 16 75 4 20 1

Start Kenneth Walker III vs Broncos Walker continues to hum along as a dependable RB2 in fantasy (RB20 last season) despite dealing with a myriad of injuries in 2023. Walker worked through a bruised shoulder, a strained oblique, a chest issue, and a tender calf last season. This didn't stop him from averaging 17.3 touches and 82 total yards in the 14 games that he played at least 41% of the snaps. Walker remains one of the best pure rushers in the game while sitting at fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt last season. Zach Charbonnet will continue to be a weekly worry as he siphons off red zone and pass game work, but Walker should still lead the backfield in touches this year. We like for him to burst out of the gate against a Broncos defense that ranked #30 in rushing yards allowed and ranked #30 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Att. Yards Rec. Rec. Yards TDs 16 91 3 18 1

Rewards...

James Cook vs Cardinals
- Cook took a big leap in 2023 and may be in line for another in 2024. That's because the Bills retained Joe Brady, who turned Cook into a true workhorse back in the second half of last season. In his final seven regular season games, Cook averaged 19.2 touches, 104.3 yards, and just over 16 PPR Fantasy points per game. He touched the ball exactly 22 times in each of the Bills' two playoff games. The negative, if there was one, was that Cook only scored two rushing touchdowns for the second year in a row. If he ever has a normal touchdown season, Cook could produce like a first-round pick. Th trouble is that Cook is not a traditional between-the-tackles RB, and the presence of TD-rushing machine Josh Allen at QB may continue to hamper his abiility to score. We do like Cook to start off strong this week against the Cardinals, who ranked #32 in rushing yards allowed and #32 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Bucky Irving vs Commanders
-  He will face a team that ranked #32 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Irving enters the NFL after a productive career at Oregon after the Buccaneers used a fourth-round pick to select him in the 2024 NFL Draft. His calling card is his stop-and-start ability -- he can make defenders miss in a phone booth. At 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds, he'll have an opportunity to carve out a change of pace role in Year 1 but does not have much potential to be a lead back and would likely serve in a committee should something happen to Rachaad White. Irving is likely to come off the board in Round 3 of most rookie-only drafts. In redraft, he may be worth a late-round pick just to see how his role shakes out in training camp.

Velus Jones Jr. vs Titans
-  He will face a team that ranked #32 in field goals allowed in 2024. He will face a team that ranked #31 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. After being selected in the third round of the 2023 draft, Jones has not become a regular part of Chicago's offense. On the season, he caught four passes for 20 yards to go with eight rushes for 51 yards. Although Jones has two years remaining on his rookie contract, he could be battling for a roster spot in 2024.

Christian McCaffrey vs Jets
- The consensus No. 1 overall pick in one-QB formats remains McCaffrey, who has averaged at least 21 PPR points in each of his past two seasons. In fact, of the 27 regular-season games McCaffrey played in with the 49ers, he's hit at least 21 PPR points 17 times (63% of his games) and at least 30 PPR points five times (nearly 20% of his games). If there's a worry, it's that McCaffrey is 28 years old and coming off of a 417-touch season including the playoffs. The previous time McCaffrey had over 400 touches in a year was 2019, and he followed it up with two injury-plagued seasons. The 417 touches were also his most in a season ever. If he's on your squad, he is in your lineup. Period.

Joe Mixon vs Colts
- Mixon was traded from Cincinnati to Houston this offseason, and he will be the starter for the Texans in 2024. Mixon should be considered a high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues. Ending up in Houston was a great landing spot for Mixon, who has averaged at least 15.7 PPR points per game in each of the past four seasons. The Texans offense should be explosive with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, and Houston has an above-average offensive line. Mixon should have the chance to score double-digit touchdowns (he's averaged 13 total touchdowns a year for the past three seasons), and he should be a factor in the passing game (he has 112 receptions in the past two seasons). He also has little competition for touches, which is ideal. While he's getting older at 27, Mixon should have the chance for a big season with his new team in 2024. He gets a great match-up against the Colts to start his Houston career: they ranked #29 against fantasy RBs in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Colts, he rushed for 111 and scored a TD on the ground.

Rachaad White vs Commanders
- White broke out in 2023 in large part due to how he fit Dave Canales' system. White finished with the fifth-most touches per game, top 10 among all RBs in carries and top nine in targets, and he turned that massive volume into the 14th-most Fantasy points per game and ninth-most per game in PPR formats. The outlook has changed slightly in 2024 with Canales in Carolina and the Buccaneers using a draft pick on RB Bucky Irving. With a heavy volume projection, White came off the board around the Round 2/3 turn and is one of the best bets for volume at the RB position. Plug him in this week against the Commanders, who ranked #28 against fantasy RBs in 2023, and sleep like a baby.

Javonte Williams vs Seahawks
- Three years after being drafted by the Broncos, Williams appears to have won the battle this preseason for playing time. Denver has multiple running backs who have more speed than Williams showed last year and added a rookie in Audric Estime who can play with as much physicality as Williams. Coming back from a torn ACL in 2023, Williams averaged just 3.6 yards per rush, ranked outside the top 30 qualifying running backs in avoided tackle rate and explosive play rate, and had his stats salvaged by receptions (11 games with at least three catches) and occasional touchdowns (three rushing, two receiving). He gets a plus start this week against the Seahawks, who ranked #31 in rushing TDs allowed, #31 in rushing yards allowed and #31 against fantasy RBs in 2023.

Sit Zay Flowers vs Chiefs Flowers enters his second season in the NFL as the No. 1 receiver for the Ravens and a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. As a rookie, Flowers averaged 12.8 PPR points per game, but the best stretch of his production came with Mark Andrews (ankle) sidelined toward the end of the season. Flowers scored at least 19.6 PPR points in four of his final five games of the regular season, including catching four of his five touchdowns over that span. Andrews is back at 100 percent, but Flowers should continue to improve in his sophomore campaign, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. now with the Dolphins. Rashod Bateman should also have a prominent role, and the Ravens could be more run-heavy with the addition of Derrick Henry. But Lamar Jackson should continue to develop a rapport with Flowers, and he should keep improving as he gets more experience. Flowers has top-20 upside in all formats entering 2024 but may not get off to a great start against the Chiefs defense that ranked #3 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 5 50 0

Sit Chris Olave vs Panthers Olave was a popular breakout candidate heading into 2023 but ultimately failed to live up to the hype and scored just the 19th-most Fantasy points per game. However, Olave did command the 13th-most targets per game with a 40% air yardage share. Both the targets and air yards suggest the breakout is still in play and it just might happen one year later. Olave will have working for him an added year of rapport with Derek Carr, no Michael Thomas to compete with for targets, and possible positive touchdown progression coming his way. Olave was often drafted in the back end of Round 2 or early Round 3 and should provide a WR2 floor with the upside for more. So do not fool yourself into expecting WR1 production early, especially this week against Carolina whose defense ranked #1 in receiving yards allowed and ranked #4 against fantasy WRs in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Panthers, he racked up just 28 receiving yards.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 5 58 0

Sit George Pickens vs Falcons This should be a big season for Pickens, who is entering his third year in the NFL. He was drafted as early as Round 4 in many leagues. Pittsburgh traded Diontae Johnson to Carolina, and now Pickens gets a quarterback upgrade in Russell Wilson. In four games last year when Johnson was hurt, Pickens had two outings with at least 22.7 PPR points. We expect Wilson to start the majority of games, and he threw 10 touchdowns to Courtland Sutton in 2023. And Wilson was good for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett toward the end of his tenure in Seattle. Wilson should help make Pickens a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues with the chance to be a top-10 option. Now, you may be concerned that Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator for the Steelers, and Smith wasn't good for Drake London the past two seasons in Atlanta. But with Smith as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2019-20, A.J. Brown caught 122 passes for 2,126 yards and 19 touchdowns on 190 targets in 30 games. Pickens should be the focal point of the passing game in Pittsburgh, and this should be a breakout campaign in 2024. That said... we do not like him this week (especially in DFS) as he takes on an Atlanta defense ranked #2 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 5 62 0

Risks...

Brandon Aiyuk vs Jets
- Aiyuk would be a Fantasy monster if he garnered more than the 6.6 targets per game he had in 2023, but he's still a borderline top-12 WR even without the mega-volume. That's because he proved to be among the most efficient receivers in the NFL last season, ranking top three at the position in yards per catch (17.9), yards per route run (3.06), yards per target (12.8 was tops in football) . The best part is that of Aiyuk's 37 receptions of 16-plus yards, a dozen were on short receptions that Aiyuk turned upfield on for longer gains. It suggests Aiyuk is more than just a deep-ball receiver, though it is those splash plays that helped him land some dominant weeks last year (four with 20-plus PPR). A lift in targets would do so much more for him, and it's a possibility not only because of his talent and value to the Niners but also because of the ages of both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, both of whom take targets away. Hile the sky is the limit, it may take a few weeks for him to shake off the rust given that he was a training camp holdout. Also, the Jets ranked #3 in receiving yards allowed and were #1 against fantasy WRs in 2023. If you have better options, you might want to go that route.

KEENAN ALLEN vs Titans
- A new team, a crowded receiving corps and a rookie quarterback are likely to rein in Allen's numbers in 2024, making him more of a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in PPR leagues. Allen has consistently been a good stat producer, but he's also averaged at least six catches per game in each of his past seven seasons. Now in Chicago, the 32-year-old will share the field with D.J. Moore and first-rounder Rome Odunze while catching passes from rookie No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. It's clear Allen won't have the 8.5 or more targets per game he's enjoyed in each of his last seven seasons, and it's also clear from watching him last season that he's not as explosive as he once was. With receptions his primary way of scoring Fantasy points, Allen could hit eight-year lows in Fantasy point totals, even if he's helping the Bears offense in other ways. Add in also that he's been dealing with nagging injuries during the preseason.

BRANDIN COOKS vs Browns
- The good news is that Cooks should hold on to the WR2 role in Dallas in 2024. The bad news is that role wasn't particularly valuable in 2023 -- at least not in any sort of sustainable way. He did score eight touchdowns last year which made him startable about half the time, but he only saw 81 targets in 16 games and only had one game with more than 60 receiving yards. Don't expect much this week against a Browns team that ranked #2 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Britain Covey vs Packers
-  He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision).

Gabe Davis vs Dolphins
- Davis left the Bills and joined the Jaguars this offseason. We expect Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to lead Jacksonville in targets, while Davis will battle Brian Thomas Jr. for targets on the outside. If Davis emerges as Trevor Lawrence's favorite downfield option then it is possible Davis can re-emerge as the boom-or-bust WR3 he's been in Buffalo. For now, he has more appeal in Best Ball leagues, especially if you drafted Lawrence as your quarterback. Davis is still worthy of a roster spot in most Dynasty leagues due to his big-play ability and the fact that he's still just 25 years old -- but it is hard to trust him.

Devin Duvernay vs Dolphins
-  The Dolphins ranked #2 in field goals allowed in 2024. Duvernay signed with Jacksonville this offseason, and he's expected to play a prominent role on special teams with the Jaguars. He's only worth drafting with a late-round pick in leagues where you get points for return yardage. The 26-year-old averaged 24.8 yards per kick return during his career in Baltimore and also scored two touchdowns, and he could be an asset with the new kickoff rules for 2024. That said, Duvernay has never averaged more than 7.9 PPR points per game during his four seasons with the Ravens and is limited in his potential as a receiver.

Deonte Harty vs Chiefs
-  The defense ranked #2 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Until Harty receives meaningful playing time, Fantasy managers shouldn't bother adding him to their rosters.

Christian Kirk vs Dolphins
-  He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision).Kirk has an opportunity to run away with the Jaguars' WR1 role in 2024 after playing second fiddle to Calvin Ridley at times in 2023. Before his injury, Kirk was the WR19 in Fantasy points per game and that number should rise with an increase in target share. He'll have to compete with Bills castoff Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas for targets, but Kirk is the only receiver of the three with a built-in rapport with QB Trevor Lawrence. Kirk also occupies the coveted slot role in Doug Pederson's offense. Kirk makes for an excellent target in the Rounds 5-6 range of your drafts.

CeeDee Lamb vs Browns
- Lamb became one of the best wide receivers in the NFL last year and we're buying a repeat. We weren't opposed to drafting him as early as 1.02 in a PPR redraft league and he's an easy top-five pick in a Dynasty startup as well -- even while he was holding out. It's rare that a player's volume and efficiency spike like this, but Lamb saw 25 more targets in 2023 and somehow produced more yards per target as well. His 135 catches led the NFL and even that might sell him short. From Week 8 on Lamb averaged 12.6 targets per game and was on pace for 156 catches over a full season. The Cowboys added no competition for targets and appear ready to feature Lamb like no other wide receiver in the league this season. Just temper expectations for a guy who held out the entire off-season and faces a tough Browns defense right off that bat that ranked #2 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Joshua Palmer vs Raiders
-  He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision).Palmer is a sneaky sleeper receiver given the other players he'll compete with for targets with the Chargers. When pressed into action in previous seasons, Palmer's been serviceable for Fantasy. And now that the Chargers cleaned house at receiver, Palmer should see regular reps. Consistently solid in terms of catch rate (at least 62% per year) and capable of winning on short and intermediate routes, Palmer could wind up first or second on the Bolts in targets and catches. That's not a bad outlook for someone you'll gravitate toward with a late-round pick, even if he'll play in a run-first offense. For what it is worth, when he last played the Raiders, he racked up 113 receiving caught 1 TD passes. For what it is worth, when he last played the Raiders, he racked up 77 receiving caught 0 TD passes.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs Texans
-  He will face a team that ranked #1 in receiving TDs allowed in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Texans, he racked up 44 receiving caught 0 TD passes. For what it is worth, when he last played the Texans, he racked up 56 receiving caught 0 TD passes. We are a little concerned about him having Richardson throwing the ball vs. Gardner Minshew this year.

Brandon Powell vs Giants
-  The defense ranked #4 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Powell is expected to be the No. 3 receiver for the Vikings this season behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but Powell is not worth drafting in the majority of leagues. Powell will compete with Trent Sherfield for the No. 3 job, but Powell should have the inside track after spending 2023 with the Vikings. He only averaged 3.9 PPR points per game last season, and Powell has never produced at a high level in his career offensively with a combined 162.1 PPR points in seven seasons with Minnesota, the Rams, Atlanta and Detroit. But this could be his best chance to be an offensive weapon if he's third on the depth chart, especially if T.J. Hockenson (knee) is limited early in the season. Powell also is the primary punt returner for the Vikings, and he had 37 returns for 289 yards in 2023.

Courtland Sutton vs Seahawks
-  He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision).Expectations shouldn't be too lofty for Sutton even after his 2023 season when he scored 10 touchdowns. That's because Sutton failed to average even six targets per game in Denver's conservative offense and figures to be limited again in his opportunities in 2024. It doesn't help that Sutton missed offseason workouts over a contract dispute, nor is it a positive that he'll catch passes from a rookie -- even one that comes with a lot of collegiate experience like Bo Nix. Here's the reality: Sutton hasn't popped for over 12 PPR points per game since 2019, and even then it was 13.9. Unless Sutton's situation changes, think of him as a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver at best worth grabbing in the middle rounds.

KaVontae Turpin vs Browns
-  The Browns ranked #1 in field goals allowed in 2024. The defense ranked #1 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Until Turpin receives meaningful playing time, Fantasy managers shouldn't bother adding him to their rosters.

MIKE WILLIAMS vs 49ers
- Once a prominent breakout candidate with pockets of gaudy stats sprinkled throughout his career, Williams will attempt to come back from a torn ACL with the Jets. Questions about his availability after suffering the injury last September have circulated this offseason without a concrete timetable given out by the Jets. Even if he's ready by this preseason, he's unlikely to unseat Garrett Wilson as the top target getter in New York and might struggle for consistent looks from week to week because of guys like Breece Hall and rookie Malachi Corley. There's modest appeal in drafting Williams with a pick after Round 10 -- if he plays well then he's a steal, and if he struggles to begin the year, he could potentially be cut for someone else.

Start MIKE EVANS vs Commanders Evans fell in Fantasy drafts last summer due to uncertainties about his quarterback play and concerns about his age. He responded by finishing as the WR4 overall in Fantasy with another 1,000-yard season (1,233 to be exact) and 13 receiving touchdowns. His rapport with Baker Mayfield was excellent, specifically in the red zone. He enters 2024 as a high-end WR2 option being selected in the early-to-mid-Round 3 range despite him outproducing several of the receivers drafted in front of him. We expect him to pick up where he left off this week with a great match-up against Washington, who ranked #32 in receiving TDs allowed, #32 in receiving yards allowed and #32 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 6 95 1

Start COOPER KUPP vs Lions Is one bad, injury-plagued season enough to downgrade or even ignore Kupp? In the two seasons prior, Kupp averaged 25.3 and 22.4 PPR points per game in what were golden seasons as Matthew Stafford's unquestioned top receiver. The situation has obviously changed with Puka Nacua becoming a prominent target, but Kupp still saw 7.9 targets per game from Week 5 on, and that includes a Week 11 game he left early. Kupp also had an edge over Nacua in red-zone targets and avoided tackle rate in that span and scored just as many receiving touchdowns (five). Where Kupp lagged was in explosiveness, where Nacua clearly looked like the fresher player, which wasn't at all surprising since Nacua is roughly eight years younger and wasn't hurt like Kupp was. If Kupp can get through the preseason without any setbacks and perhaps some glowing reports, he shapes up to be among the best bounce-back candidates in Fantasy. Count on him as a WR2 and maybe better this week against Detroit, who ranked #30 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 8 93 1

Start Terry McLaurin vs Buccaneers We're viewing McLaurin as a No. 3 wide receiver in Fantasy Football this season. It feels like we've never seen the best of McLaurin due to mediocre quarterback play and there is legitimate reason to hope that Jayden Daniels changes that. On the other hand, Daniels is a rookie quarterback with exceptional running ability, so we should probably anticipate a pretty severe decrease in passing volume for Washington this season. McLaurin could make up for that loss in volume by improving on his minuscule 3.5% touchdown rate over the past four seasons, but it's hard to see how McLaurin can take a big leap this year. In Dynasty there is slightly more hope that a Daniels/McLaurin marriage could produce long-term elite production, but McLaurin turns 29 in September so it's probably time to stop talking about what he could be. What he could be is money in the bank this week against the Bucs who ranked #30 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 6 87 1

Rewards...

DAVANTE ADAMS vs Chargers
- You might lower expectations for Adams in 2024, but not to the point where you'll want to ignore him. Proof of his dynamite production came at the beginning and the end of last season: Adams did well in his first three games (25.1 PPR point average) before Jimmy Garoppolo got concussed, then the Raiders season fell apart and the offense struggled until the final four weeks when Aidan O'Connell got comfortable (19.7 PPR point average). The film will also show that Adams is still explosive, but he clearly needs adequate quarterback play. To that end, Gardner Minshew will begin the season as Las Vegas' quarterback; last season he pushed Michael Pittman to a 16.5 PPR per-game average in his 12 complete games in Indy. Expect Adams to post 16 PPR points (probably closer to 9.5 non-PPR points) most weeks. He will face a Charger team that ranked #31 in receiving yards allowed in 2023 and ranked #29 against fantasy WRs. For what it is worth, when he last played the Chargers, he racked up 101 receiving yards and caught 1 TD pass.

Jordan Addison vs Giants
- Addison quietly had a solid rookie campaign in 2023, and he's looking to build off that performance this year. Addison is worth viewing as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, even with a possible suspension looming and with Sam Darnold as his QB for the foreseeable future. As a rookie, Addison was one of six receivers to score double digits in touchdowns with 10, and he averaged 13.0 PPR points per game. Addison could also benefit with T.J. Hockenson (knee) potentially out to start the season, which could lead to more targets. He has the upside to be a top-20 Fantasy receiver in any given week. This may be one of those weeks as he takes on a Giants team that ranked #28 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

DeAndre Carter vs Titans
-  He will face a team that ranked #32 in field goals allowed in 2024. He will face a team that ranked #31 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Until Carter finds meaningful playing time, Fantasy managers shouldn't bother adding him to rosters.

Keon Coleman vs Cardinals
- The rookie has a great opportunity in Buffalo with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departing. Coleman will battle Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Curtis Samuel for targets, with the winner providing a massive value at whatever their ADP is. Coleman has the best combination of size and speed in the receiving corps and should see regular snaps starting early in the season. While he didn't post huge numbers in college, he did outproduce Jayden Reed at Michigan State in 2022, when Coleman was just 20 years old. If he earns Josh Allen's trust he has a chance to produce like a top-20 wide receiver this season. His size and box-out basketball prowess should make him a great redzone option. In fact, we would not be surprised to see him lead all rookie WRs in TD receptions this year, with his first possibly coming this week against the Cardinals who ranked #30 in receiving TDs allowed in 2023.

Chris Godwin vs Commanders
- Godwin took some time to round into form as he made his return from ACL surgery, but he found his stride at the end of the season with a WR11 and WR13 finish overall in two of his last four games. Godwin's role in 2023 was high volume, low average depth of target, and minimal impact in the red zone. Assuming he will see some positive regression in the TD department, Godwin makes for an excellent WR2/WR3 option, specifically in PPR formats. As is a running theme this week with him and his teammates, the match-up against Washington should be a good one: the Commanders ranked #32 in receiving TDs allowed, #32 in receiving yards allowed and ranked #32 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

Tee Higgins vs Patriots
- Higgins is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Higgins will be a polarizing Fantasy option this season given his contract situation, his injury-plagued 2023 campaign, and concerns over Joe Burrow's injury status. But as long as he's ready for Week 1, Higgins should be considered a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 3 and no later than Round 5. In June, Higgins signed the franchise tag placed on him in February, which means he should report for training camp on time. He will make $21.8 million on the one-year tag, and hopefully the motivation of a new contract will help improve his Fantasy stock. That said, he still has plenty to prove, including putting 2023 behind him when he played just 12 games and averaged a career-low 11.5 PPR points per game. It didn't help that Burrow missed the final seven games of the season with a wrist injury, but Higgins still had four games with at least 19 PPR points. Higgins also scored at least 13.8 PPR points per game in each of the previous two seasons, and he's capable of reaching that level of production again. Keep an eye on Higgins heading into training camp, and hopefully he's ready to put up a big season with potentially a lot of money on the line. The other good news this week is that it may be iffy for Chase to line up with his holdout.

TYREEK HILL vs Jaguars
-  Analyzing various factors very carefully, we expect him to post nice fantasy stats this week. He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured. Hill is a first-round pick in all one-quarterback leagues and he's in the discussion for No. 1 overall. Since he joined the Dolphins he has 401 more receiving yards than any other player in football. Hill turning 30 may scare some Fantasy managers away, but he showed no signs of slowing down last year, setting career-highs in targets, yards and yards per game. His 10.5 yards per target and 15.1 yards per catch were his best marks since 2018. In Dynasty leagues, Hill's age matters a bit more. He slips to WR8 in that format and is a sell for any team that isn't a true contender in 2024.

Justin Jefferson vs Giants
- There are some Fantasy managers concerned about Jefferson this season, and rightfully so. He has a new quarterback in disappointing veteran Sam Darnold. But we still believe in Jefferson, and he should once again be considered a top-five Fantasy receiver in all leagues with the upside to be the No. 1 player at his position. As such, he was drafted with a top-10 overall pick if not top-five. Last year, Jefferson played the final four games with Nick Mullens, and Jefferson was still dominant. He had 44 targets for 30 catches, 476 yards and two touchdowns, and he averaged 22.1 PPR points per game over that span thanks to monster games against the then-weak Lions defense. Jefferson is capable of producing with almost any quarterback in Kevin O'Connell's offense, even Darnold, and Jefferson should once again have a standout campaign in 2024. He averaged at least 17.1 PPR points per game in four years in a row, including each of the past two seasons of at least 20.2 PPR points per game. He will face a Giants team that ranked #28 against fantasy WRs in 2023.

DJ Moore vs Titans
- Moore should once again be considered the No. 1 receiver for the Bears, but he might not be as productive as he was in 2023. This season, consider Moore a No. 2 Fantasy receiver. Last year, Moore averaged a career-best 16.9 PPR points per game, but he was the clear focal point of the passing game with 136 targets. This season, the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, and both will command plenty of targets, which should impact Moore. We also have to see how Moore adjusts to a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Moore should still be productive but don't be surprised if he sees a decline in production this season with the new additions to Chicago's receiving corps. He should definitely be drafted as a starter in the majority of leagues.

Trey Palmer vs Commanders
-  He will face a team that ranked #32 against fantasy Kickers in 2024. Palmer flashed at times as a rookie but needs to earn significant playing time before being considered on the Fantasy radar.

Jayden Reed vs Eagles
- He will face a team that ranked #31 in receiving TDs allowed in 2023. He will face a team that ranked #31 against fantasy WRs in 2024. Reed emerged as the No. 1 receiver for the Packers during his rookie campaign in 2023, scoring 10 total touchdowns, and we'll see if he can build off that performance in Year 2. We like Reed as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 6. Last year, Reed averaged 13.6 PPR points per game, and he scored at least 15 PPR points in seven of his final eight games to close the regular season. Green Bay has a crowded receiving corps, and most of Reed's production came when Christian Watson was dealing with hamstring problems, which are hopefully under control this season. That said, Reed was used in a variety of ways (he had 11 carries for 119 and two touchdowns), and he's someone Jordan Love should continue to rely on. We hope Reed doesn't take a step back in production, and he has the upside to be a top-20 Fantasy option in all leagues, especially if he can score double digits in touchdowns again this year.

Khalil Shakir vs Cardinals
-  He will face a team that ranked #30 in receiving TDs allowed in 2023. Shakir is worthy of a selection as early as Round 10 in full PPR redraft leagues. With both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis out of Buffalo there is a big opportunity for all of the Bills pass-catchers but little clarity on the pecking order. For now, we're projecting Shakir to be behind tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman, but no one has any reason to feel confident about that projection. Shakir averaged an incredible 13.6 yards per target last year but only saw 45 targets in 17 games. He did score in both of the Bills' 2023 playoff games and led the team with 105 yards receiving in their must-win Week 18 game against the Dolphins. Draft him as a bench receiver knowing there's a ton of room for upside if Shakir is Josh Allen's top target this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Rams
-  Analyzing various factors very carefully, we expect AMon-Ra (the Sun God) to post nice fantasy stats this week. He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured.

Garrett Wilson vs 49ers
- For the second year in a row, Wilson is one of the most common breakout picks in Fantasy Football. Let's hope his quarterback stays healthy. We're drafting Wilson late in Round 1 in full PPR leagues and Round 2 everywhere else. The 24-year-old has caught passes from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, and Chris Streveler in his first two seasons in the NFL. Somehow he topped 80 catches and 1,000 yards in both seasons anyway. With Rodgers under center, 100 catches and 1,500 yards is possible. Most notably, you should expect Wilson to score more. Rodgers has a career 6.2% touchdown rate, while Wilson has only scored on 2.2% of his career receptions. We expect him to double his career touchdowns and then some this season. Wilson is a top-10 WR in Dynasty who could leap into the top five with a hot start to the season.

Sit Jake Ferguson vs Browns One of the most consistent aspects of the Dak Prescott era is that his tight end is going to be a low-end starter in Fantasy. Ferguson kept that tradition alive in 2023 and he'll open the season in the same role. The case for upside beyond that is in how he finished the season. In his final 11 games he was on pace for 77 catches, 882 yards and six touchdowns. In his lone playoff game he caught 10 of 12 targets for 93 yards and three touchdowns. If no one steps up in the WR2 role, Ferguson could be the value of the tight end position. Tradition says it's more likely he'll finish between TE8 and TE12. Skip him in DFS this week though as the Browns ranked #2 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 4 37 0

Sit Cole Kmet vs Titans Kmet looked like he was poised to be the next breakout Fantasy tight end when 2023 ended, and that could still happen. However, the path to that breakout campaign got harder this offseason when the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to a receiving corps that already includes D.J. Moore, as well as a new tight end in Gerald Everett, so Kmet could struggle for targets. We view Kmet as just a No. 2 Fantasy tight end this season, and he's only worth drafting with a late-round pick. In 2023, Kmet played well when he scored at least 11.3 PPR points in eight games, and he averaged a career-best 10.7 PPR points per game for the season on 90 targets. It will be hard for Kmet to replicate those stats when everyone is healthy, but hopefully he develops a quick rapport with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. It's not a bad idea to stash Kmet at the end of your bench to see what happens early in the season. And if he goes undrafted then he could emerge as a waiver-wire option during the year if he plays well despite the crowded receiving corps in Chicago. Given that he is dealing with a nagging injury and faces the Tennessee defense that ranked #2 against fantasy TEs in 2023, keep him under wraps this week.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 3 39 0

Risks...

Mark Andrews vs Chiefs
- Andrews should once again be considered one of the best Fantasy tight ends in 2024, and was drafted early in the majority of leagues. Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce were likely the first two tight ends drafted in most formats, and Andrews probably came off the board next or potentially behind Trey McBride. In 2023, Andrews had another stellar campaign at 13.5 PPR points per game, but he missed the final six games of the regular season with an ankle injury. He returned for the AFC Championship Game, and Andrews should be fully healthy for training camp. He should once again be the No. 1 target for Lamar Jackson, and Andrews should be in consideration to be the best Fantasy tight end this year. Just be cautious about expecting too much out of him in week one with the Chiefs defense on tap. That defense ranked #3 against fantasy TEs in 2023.

Noah Fant vs Broncos
- There's only one reason to even consider drafting Fant: His Week 1 matchup against the Broncos, who were terrible against tight ends and didn't do much to improve their coverage against them this year. Fant's been an underachiever in Fantasy for each of the past two seasons (since he left Denver) and even the new Seattle offense isn't enough to get excited about his prospects for more targets. Unless you're looking for a Week 1 sleeper, keep Fant off your rosters.

Juwan Johnson vs Panthers
- Despite flirting with Fantasy relevancy and preseason hype, Johnson has struggled to find any consistency. Getting hurt this offseason won't help things. Johnson averaged the 18th-most Fantasy points per game in PPR and has struggled to earn a consistent target share throughout his career. Volume has been a big factor in Johnson's lack of consistency. In 2023, he averaged the 26th-most touches among TEs but was under three touches per game. He also averaged just the 19th-most targets per game at TE. Furthermore, Johnson hurt his foot in June and did not have a timetable for his return. It all points to Johnson not being on the Fantasy radar in 2024. He gets a surprisingly tough match-up this week against the Panthers, who Panthers ranked #1 in receiving yards allowed in 2023. For what it is worth, when he last played the Panthers, he racked up 10 receiving yards and caught exactly 0 TD passes.

Trey McBride vs Bills
- From Week 8 until the end of last season, McBride led the Cardinals with 8.5 targets per game. That coincided with Zach Ertz getting hurt and Marquise Brown falling out of favor with the Cardinals offense, but there's a lot of hope for McBride to stay close to that mark in 2024. Not only did the Cardinals lead the NFL in tight end targets per game with 10.5, but they were fourth-best with 9.9 per game in the first seven weeks before McBride truly broke out. The hope is that Marvin Harrison Jr.'s arrival doesn't impact McBride's target share too much, keeping him squarely in the mix as a top-five Fantasy tight end, especially in full PPR. You are starting him most weeks in re-draft weeks, but be wary this week of the Bills' defense that ranked #3 in receiving TDs allowed and ranked #5 against fantasy TEs in 2023. Of course, they are without LB Matt Milano and are starting 2 new safeties this season, so the risk may not be that great.

David Njoku vs Cowboys
- Njoku had a career season in 2023, and we'll see if he can produce at a high level once again this year. He's worth drafting as a low-end No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues with a mid- to late-round pick. Njoku averaged a career-best 12.6 PPR points per game last season, but you have to look at his 2024 campaign in two parts. He was great with Joe Flacco to end the season, but Njoku struggled with Deshaun Watson, who will be the starter in 2024. Njoku scored 6.8 PPR points or less in three of five games with Watson, but he scored at least 16.4 PPR points in each of his final four games with Flacco. We're hopeful Njoku can be more productive with Watson this year, and a full season together should help. Njoku is a good tight end to wait for on Draft Day in all leagues, but don't reach for him based solely on last year's success.

Start Evan Engram vs Dolphins Engram set a new career high with 114 receptions in 2023 as the Jaguars were dealt a blow on the injury front when Christian Kirk went down. This led to Engram finishing as the TE2 overall and a borderline weekly winner in PPR leagues. The Jaguars offense is expected to take a more vertical approach in 2024 with an improved offensive line plus the additions of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas at WR. The return of Kirk should also eat into Engram's role. Engram's target share should dip, but this is already accounted for in his ADP. Engram can be had in the Rounds 9-10 range of your drafts and will likely return value at that price even if his receptions take a step back. We expect him to see a good amount of usage as the Jags will likely need to throw to keep up with the Dolphins.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 6 64 1

Start Dalton Kincaid vs Cardinals The consensus is that Kincaid is a top-six tight end. The former first-round pick just earned 91 targets in 16 games as a rookie and now has an enormous opportunity with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. Year 2 is a common breakout season for tight ends, and Kincaid has the situation to make it happen. He will need Dawson Knox to take a step back in the end zone so that he can improve on last year's touchdown total. Kincaid is a top-five tight end in Dynasty leagues right now and could leap to No. 1 at the position if he becomes Allen's top target this season. This week he faces a team that ranked #30 in receiving TDs allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output Receptions Rec. Yards TDs 6 68 1

Rewards...

Brock Bowers vs Chargers
- It was surprising that the Raiders took Bowers with their first-round pick, giving them a very unique talent who could shine as soon as this year. An instant hit at Georgia, Bowers scored 13 touchdowns as a freshman, then totaled 13 touchdowns with over 1,600 receiving yards in his next two seasons (25 games). Bowers also worked on occasion as a rusher, including when he lined up as a Wildcat QB. He is very much a mismatch tight end in the mold of George Kittle, capable of working downfield for splash plays or taking short passes a good distance through his ruthless power and speed. He's just not as effective as a blocker, but that's something Fantasy managers don't have to sweat. There is an injury track record with Bowers but he's too promising of a player to ignore. Bowers will face a team that ranked #31 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Tyler Conklin vs 49ers
- Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert competed for the TE1 role in camp this year. Conklin came out ahead, which makes him a mid-range TE2, with low-end TE1 upside. Conklin has earned exactly 87 targets in three straight seasons. If he reaches that number again, and Aaron Rodgers is his old self, that might be enough to make Conklin relevant on a weekly basis. For now we see Conklin as a weekly streamer who could be a good call in DFS when the match-up is right. At first glance, you would think that the match-up against the 49ers is a tough one, but they were surprisingly soft on TEs in 2023.

ZACH ERTZ vs Buccaneers
- Ertz is nearing the end of an incredible career that at its peak featured WR1 type numbers (116 receptions for 1,163 yards and eight TDs in 2018). He played just seven games in 2023 before hitting injured reserve and eventually being released by the Cardinals, and he set career lows in targets, receptions and yardage as Trey McBride blossomed in the Cardinals offense. Ertz latched on with the Commanders in the offseason, and he'll battle for lead tight end duties while mentoring second-round pick Ben Sinnott. Ertz could be a sneaky contrarian play this week in DFS: He will face a team that ranked #30 in receiving yards allowed and ranked #31 against fantasy TEs in 2023.

HUNTER HENRY vs Bengals
- Henry went undrafted in many Fantasy leagues because the 29-year-old hasn't averaged even 40 yards per game since he got to New England and his only real Fantasy relevance in that time has been as a touchdown-dependent streamer. But we will be watching his usage early in the year because new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has been in Cleveland the last four seasons, helping to run one of the more tight end-centric offenses in the league. Last year the Browns threw 166 passes to tight ends, the seventh-highest mark in the league. If Van Pelt brings that to New England, Henry could be a top waiver wire add early in the season. Otherwise, throw darts streaming Henry during bye weeks and occasionally as a low price point option in DFS. In fact, he could be a nice DFS option this week as the Bengals ranked #30 against fantasy TEs in 2023.

TRAVIS KELCE vs Ravens
- Kelce was one of the first two tight ends drafted in every league because of his big role in the Chiefs offense, but Father Time is working against him. Battling injuries for much of 2023, Kelce averaged 19.5 PPR points per game in his first seven games, then 10.4 PPR points per game in his next eight before rebounding to 21.5 PPR points per game in four playoff matchups, including 18.3 in the Super Bowl. Kansas City's additions at receiver will hinder Kelce to a degree, but the bigger factor is that he'll turn 35 years old in October and clearly carries some risk after he started last year with a bone bruise in his knee, played through an ankle injury and then had a minor neck issue sideline him for a game. Even with that risk, Kelce has undeniable upside as evidenced by his start and finish to 2023. Don't gloss over that. Fantasy managers who want an elite tight end without age and injury concerns pivoted to Sam LaPorta over Kelce, but that doesn't mean Kelce wasn't worth consideration as a top-30 pick since he'll still see lots of targets as Patrick Mahomes' most trusted pass-catcher. He is an every-week starter in fantasy.

GEORGE KITTLE vs Jets
- He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured. Kittle's 12.7 PPR points per game last year was good enough to finish as the sixth-best tight end in Fantasy, but it was still a six-year low for the veteran tight end. Hand in hand with that is a declining target share that hit 5.6 per game last season (5.1 in games Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were involved in). Most TEs with that low volume need a lot of touchdowns to compensate for it; Kittle recorded six scores in 2023, tied for the second-most in a season of his career. The 31-year-old is still fun to watch and playing in a fantastic offense, but it seems like a return to a heavy-volume role is unlikely. Think of him as a start-worthy Fantasy option worth grabbing as soon as 70th overall, but not as an elite-tier at tight end.

Sam LaPorta vs Rams
- LaPorta was one of the biggest breakouts in 2023 as a rookie when he averaged 14.1 PPR points per game. He enters this season with the chance to be the No. 1 Fantasy tight end on Draft Day. LaPorta should remain a focal point for Jared Goff this season in Ben Johnson's offense, and LaPorta was one of seven players to score at least 10 touchdowns in 2023. He should continue to improve heading into his second year in the NFL, and LaPorta has the chance to be the No. 1 tight end in Fantasy for many years to come. He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured and faces a team that ranked #29 against fantasy TEs in 2023.

Chig Okonkwo vs Bears
- Okonkwo was a trendy sleeper pick last summer but ultimately disappointed, scoring just one touchdown and seeing his yards per route run plummet from 2.61 in 2022 to 1.31 in 2023. He scored just the 29th-most Fantasy points per game at the TE position. In 2024, Okonkwo could be a post-hype sleeper if the offense takes a step forward in Will Levis' second season. However, he has more target competition after the team signed Calvin Ridley. This week he faces a team that ranked #28 against fantasy TEs in 2023.

Cade Otton vs Commanders
- Otton had one blow-up week where he finished as the TE2 but other than finishing just inside the top 12 TEs in weekly scoring only three times in 2023. He is not worth rostering in 2024 in all but the deepest of tight end premium leagues -- but could be an occasional DFS streamer. This may be a good week to roll the dice: He will face a Washington team that ranked #32 in receiving yards allowed in 2023.

Sit Will Reichard vs Giants The Vikings selected Reichard in the sixth round of the NFL Draft, and he's expected to be the starter in Minnesota this year. Reichard competed with John Parker Romo for the job, but Reichard won the job easily. Reichard is the NCAA's all-time leading points scorer (547). At Alabama, Reichard converted 274 of 275 extra points and had an 86 percent field goal success rate. He went undrafted in the majority of leagues, but Reichard could be someone to add off the waiver wire during the year -- or stream in DFS. We like him as a low-price DFS option this week against th Giants who ranked #4 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

Player Expected Output FGM FGA XPM 1 2 1

Sit Jason Sanders vs Jaguars Sanders has been a borderline top-12 kicker each of the past two seasons and that's how we feel about him entering 2024. Last year's 85.7% field goal percentage and 98.3% extra point percentage in 2023 were his highest marks since his career year in 2020. The difference was that Sanders made five of seven kicks from beyond 50 yards last year after making just four of 12 the two prior years combined. Still, he hasn't attempted more than 32 field goals in a season since 2020 and we don't expect that to change with Mike McDaniel still in charge. If you want to bet on Sanders, just do not expect an immediate ROI: the Jaguars ranked #3 in field goals allowed in 2023.

Player Expected Output FGM FGA XPM 0 1 4

Risks...

Daniel Carlson vs Chargers
- After a few sensational seasons, Carlson became a Fantasy liability in 2023, averaging just over 7.0 points per game. The Raiders offense is expected to be conservative, even with new addition Brock Bowers at tight end and Davante Adams still rolling at wide receiver. That could limit Carlson's chances to be a good kicker, which is why we wouldn't draft him this preseason .

DUSTIN HOPKINS vs Cowboys
- Hopkins is the starting kicker for the Browns, and he should be considered a low-end No. 1 Fantasy option. Hopkins had a solid season in 2023 with 33 made field goals on 36 attempts, including going 8-of-8 on kicks from 50-plus yards. And he made 24-of-26 PATs. The Browns offense should give Hopkins plenty of chances to score, and he should have the chance for another quality campaign in 2024. He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision), and the Cowboys defense ranked #3 against fantasy Kickers in 2023. So proceed with caution

Cam Little vs Dolphins
-  The Dolphins ranked #2 in field goals allowed in 2023.

Start CHRIS BOSWELL vs Falcons The Steelers offense should improve this season with new coordinator Arthur Smith and a quarterback upgrade in Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, and that should help Boswell. He could have the chance to be a starting Fantasy kicker in the majority of leagues. He only averaged 7.8 Fantasy points per game in 2023, but he made 29 field goals and 27 PATs. There's a chance for those numbers to improve, and Boswell could prove to be a Fantasy asset as the year goes on. Boswell will face an Atlanta team that ranked #31 in field goals allowed and ranked #30 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

Player Expected Output FGM FGA XPM 3 3 2

Start YOUNGHOE KOO vs Steelers Koo scored the 15th-most Fantasy points per game among kickers in 2023 and that number could've been higher if not for his paltry three made field goals of 50-plus yards. What helps Koo's projection for 2024 even more is the massive upgrade going from Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Atlanta should have more scoring opportunities, more projected games as a spread favorite (great for kickers) and he should push to finish in the top 12 among kickers.

Player Expected Output FGM FGA XPM 3 3 2

Start Chase McLaughlin vs Commanders McLaughlin averaged the 16th-most Fantasy points per game in 2023 in a season where the Buccaneers offense surprised many. If Tampa's offense has any regression after losing offensive play caller Dave Canales, McLaughlin will have fewer scoring opportunities, but he's worth a look in week 1. He will face a team that ranked #32 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

Player Expected Output FGM FGA XPM 3 3 2

Rewards...

Brandon Aubrey vs Browns
- Aubrey was a star last year. He took the Fantasy world by storm in 2023 and is in the conversation to be the top kicker taken on Draft Day. Because he's a kicker, we'd still prefer to wait until the final three rounds before drafting him. Last year Aubrey led the NFL in field goal makes and made first-team All-Pro as a rookie. He also made every kick he attempted beyond 40 yards. He plays on one of the best offenses in the NFL and only seven of his games are truly outdoors in the elements. Justin Tucker is the only kicker we would consider drafting before him.

Jake Bates vs Rams
- The Lions signed Bates to a two-year deal in mid-June after the powerful kicker finished a successful season with the UFL's Michigan Panthers. In the spring league, Bates connected on a 64-yard field goal, 2 yards shy of the NFL record, on his first ever field goal attempt in a game and then hit two more 60-yard kicks during the remainder of the season. He was 6 for 10 from 50-plus and had just one miss on his other 12 attempts during the regular season but went just 4 for 6 in the UFL playoffs. He was expected to compete with Michael Badgley for the Lions' kicking job but the incumbent suffered a season-ending injury during the first week of camp. The Lions have a high-powered offense, so Bates could get plenty of scoring chances if he can hold off any other competition the team brings in, making him a potentially attractive Fantasy asset during the year. Moreover, with Dan Campbell's propensity to go for it on 4th down, don't expect a ton of FGs out of Bates, but he might dial long range on from time-to-time, an option the Lions didn't have at times last year.

Harrison Butker vs Ravens
-  He should be a NO BRAIN start this week and every week unless he is on a bye or injured. Butker finished as a top-10 kicker last year and is in position to do so again in 2024. Kansas City's offense should be more explosive than it's been in recent seasons, setting up chances for Butker to not only rack up a lot of extra points but also try plenty of field goals. He shouldn't be one of the first kickers taken, but he's clearly worth a final-round pick.

KA'IMI FAIRBAIRN vs Colts
- Fairbairn will face a team that ranked #30 in field goals allowed and #29 against fantasy Kickers in 2023. Meanwhile, the Texans are stocked with weapons with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the fold.

Jake Moody vs Jets
- Moody's first year with the 49ers doesn't evoke much confidence in a bigger second year, which is why not many folks will draft him. As a rookie he attempted just 25 field goals and averaged under 8.0 Fantasy points per game. Until his field goal opportunities grow larger (which might happen once the 49ers offense slows down), he's not worth drafting. He will face a team that ranked #28 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

CAIRO SANTOS vs Titans
- Santos is coming off the best season of his career in 2023, and he could build off that performance this year with a revamped Chicago offense. We view Santos as a No. 2 Fantasy kicker to open the season, but he could emerge as a waiver-wire option during the year. In 2023, Santos averaged a career-best 9.3 Fantasy points per game. He made 35-of-38 field goals, including four of five kicks from 50-plus yards, and he also added 31 PATs on 33 attempts. The Bears offense should be more productive this season with additions in Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett joining D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet, and hopefully that leads to consistent production for Santos. He could have the chance for another solid season in 2024. In fact, we like him this week against the Titans who ranked #32 in field goals allowed and #31 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

JUSTIN TUCKER vs Chiefs
- Tucker remains one of the best Fantasy kickers, and was drafted first at his position with a late-round pick in many leagues. In 2023, Tucker made at least 30 field goals for the third year in a row and ninth time in 12 seasons. He also made at least 50 PATs for the third time in his past five seasons. Tucker has made 90.2 percent of his field goals and 98.7 percent of his PATs in his career. The Ravens will continue to give Tucker plenty of chances to score.

Sit Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dolphins The Jaguars scored the 17th-most Fantasy points per game in 2023. They return Josh Allen and are hoping for a leap from former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker in hopes of topping the 40 sacks they racked up in 2023. However, with question marks in the secondary, the Jaguars have issues that could hold them back from joining the elite ranks in 2024. There are better DSTs to invest in on Draft Day -- but have a very difficult match-up against the Dolphins this week.

Player Expected Output Sacks Interceptions Fumble Recoveries 1 0 1

Sit Los Angeles Rams vs Lions The Rams DST wasn't particularly good last year when it had Aaron Donald, so expectations aren't very high in its first season without him. Los Angeles did bulk up their front in the draft, adding Florida State duo Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. That should at least keep the team's pass rush serviceable. The secondary has been rebuilt with star cornerback Tre'Davious White joining the unit. It's a nice squad, but not one expected to blast off in 2024, and because they play at Detroit in Week 1 before facing the Cardinals and 49ers, odds are no one will draft this DST. Maybe they'll be useful as a one-week replacement in season.

Player Expected Output Sacks Interceptions Fumble Recoveries 1 1 0

Risks...

Arizona Cardinals vs Bills
- The Cardinals DST isn't one you should be particularly interested in drafting. They're light on pass rushers, have some question marks in the secondary and have a lot of solid veterans who have rarely played at a high level in-between. Making matters worse are multiple dates with the Rams and 49ers offenses, plus matchups against the Bills, Packers, Dolphins, Lions and Jets. In fact, the only matchups that look pretty good at this point are against the Patriots and at the Panthers. Perhaps find the Cardinals DST off waivers for those games.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Ravens
- Losing cornerback L'Jarius Sneed shouldn't be enough to dampen the expectations of a Chiefs defense that finished second per game last year in sacks (57), total yards allowed (289.8) and points allowed (16.1). Anchored by a quality front-seven including dangerous D-tackle Chris Jones, the Chiefs tend to have a way of dictating their opponents' game plans via the scoreboard. If there's a worry it's that they open the season against the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons, three offenses with plenty of firepower. But after that they have maybe three or four matchups on the schedule against offenses who can reliably match up with them on the scoreboard. If you can keep the long view in mind, the Chiefs DST are worth taking with one of your last two picks.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Packers
- One of the biggest surprises in football last year was the downfall of the Eagles defense. They were a top-five DST in Fantasy Football in 2022 and fell outside the top 20 in 2023. The man tasked with fixing that will be Vic Fangio, a coach who has led many dominant defenses in the past, though recently the results have been more uneven. The Eagles used their first three picks on defensive players in the 2024 NFL Draft including cornerbacks in Round 1 and Round 2. We are cautiously optimistic and rank the unit as a top-10 option worthy of a pick in the final two rounds of Fantasy drafts.

Green Bay Packers vs Eagles
- The Packers defense added three key pieces this offseason with safety Xavier McKinney and rookies Edgerrin Cooper (linebacker) and Javon Bullard (safety), and all three should play prominent roles right away. McKinney, Bullard, Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes will hopefully create more interceptions in the secondary since Green Bay only had seven interceptions in 2023, which was the second-fewest in the NFL. Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark lead the defensive front, and hopefully the Packers defense as a whole will improve across the board. But Fantasy managers should only consider the Packers DST a No. 2 option in the majority of leagues. Don't draft the Packers DST in most formats this year, but you can add the unit off waivers if the start of the season is productive in Green Bay.

Baltimore Ravens vs Chiefs
- The Ravens defense was special in 2023 and became the first team in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60), and takeaways (31). But a few changes are coming this season that could make a negative impact. Baltimore lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen and safety Geno Stone. However, with standout players like defensive lineman Justin Madubuike, linebacker Roquan Smith, cornerback Marlon Humphrey and safety Kyle Hamilton still on the roster, the Ravens DST should once again be a top unit. You should draft the Ravens DST in all leagues as a No. 1 option with a late-round pick.

Cade York vs Cowboys
-  The defense ranked #3 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

Greg Zuerlein vs 49ers
- Because the Jets open the season in a poor kicking environment at San Francisco, we're not advising that you draft Zuerlein as a starting kicker in Fantasy Football leagues. But he did have a nice bounce-back season in 2023, finishing as a borderline No. 1 kicker and making more than 90% of his field goals for the first time since 2017. If the Jets offense is as good as we're hoping and Zuerlein keeps making his kicks, he could be a decent streamer. But he only has two potential indoor games all season and he kicks outdoors in Buffalo and New Jersey in the Fantasy playoffs. The 49ers ranked #5 against fantasy Kickers in 2023.

Start Cincinnati Bengals vs Patriots The Bengals DST should be considered a sneaky Fantasy option to open the season with a Week 1 matchup against the Patriots. After that, Cincinnati faces Washington in Week 3 and Carolina in Week 4, which could also be favorable matchups. However, the Week 2 game at Kansas City could be tough for the Bengals defense, so keep that in mind. For the season, the Bengals DST will likely be more of a No. 2 Fantasy option in most leagues. While Cincinnati has a solid pass rush with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, the Bengals DST finished No. 20 in Fantasy points in 2023. Sheldon Rankins was added to the defensive line, and Geno Stone is the new addition to the secondary, so hopefully both can help the Bengals DST improve. Keep an eye on this unit early in the season, especially with some favorable matchups, and the Bengals DST could be a waiver-wire addition during the year.

Player Expected Output Sacks Interceptions Fumble Recoveries 4 1 2

Start New Orleans Saints vs Panthers The Saints finished as the ninth-best DST in 2023 despite combining for just three defensive and special teams touchdowns and just 34 sacks thanks to 29 takeaways. Turnover regression makes the Saints a risky bet to repeat as a top-10 DST in 2024, but the addition of Chase Young in free agency could provide the uptick in sacks needed to keep them in the DST1 discussion. The Saints are a fine DST to draft if you wait until the final pick to grab your DST.

Player Expected Output Sacks Interceptions Fumble Recoveries 3 2 1

Rewards...

Los Angeles Chargers vs Raiders
- You might draft the Chargers DST because of their Week 1 matchup versus Las Vegas, their Week 2 game at Carolina and even their Week 3 showdown in Pittsburgh. That's fine, they're late-round worthy on the basis of those games alone. But it sure helps that the squad hung on to pass rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, both of whom should be healthy to start the season. Mack had 17 of the Chargers' 48 sacks in 2023 and should be schemed up to be even more dangerous in new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter's aggressive scheme. But the Bolts also added former Michigan linebacker Junior Colson in the draft, adding more talent in hopes of finally being stout against the run. Tack on a decent secondary headlined by Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James and we're looking at a DST that could surprise beyond their early-season schedule. Just watch out for that Week 4 matchup ...

Dallas Cowboys vs Browns
- The Cowboys lost Quinn, but they still have Micah Parsons, and we're still drafting them as a top three DST in Fantasy Football. That means you should be thrilled to land them in the final three rounds of your Fantasy draft. While the Cowboys had an offseason devoid of big additions, it could be argued that's just fine on this side of the ball. After all, the 2023 Cowboys led all defenses in Fantasy points, and were top five in both points and yards allowed. This should be one of the most exciting, and highest scoring defenses in Fantasy Football.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Chargers
- You might be able to talk yourself into drafting the Raiders DST as a Week 1 streaming option, but it's mission impossible to talk yourself into them being a good season-long choice. Even with Maxx Crosby attacking quarterbacks, the Raiders DST hasn't been productive enough for Fantasy in a while. The addition of Christian Wilkins helps the D-line a lot, but it still figures to come up short most weeks. However, the Raiders play at the Chargers in Week 1, a matchup versus an offense with a great quarterback and offensive line, but little else. We'd prefer the Chargers, Bengals and Saints DSTs as streaming options, but if you can't get them and like having no strings attached to your defenses, the Raiders make some sense.

Seattle Seahawks vs Broncos
- If you're looking for an early-season DST to stream, consider the Seahawks. Their first game of the year is home against the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix. Then their second game is against the Patriots, an offense that shouldn't scare too many people. That should set up nicely for the defense to have a feisty start. After that they take on the Dolphins and Lions, two offenses that can put up points, so you might be done with the Seahawks by then. But it's worth noting that this unit made two key additions: rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy and head coach/defensive guru Mike Macdonald. The latter could have a sizable impact on how the Seahawks operate since he comes from the Harbaugh coaching tree and may run more man coverage than the Hawks have had in the past.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Falcons
- The Steelers defense should once again be one of the best in the NFL, and the Steelers DST is worth drafting with a late-round pick in all Fantasy leagues. Pittsburgh has plenty of stars on defense, including T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr., among others. And the addition of linebacker Patrick Queen this offseason should only enhance the Steelers defense this year. In 2023, Pittsburgh had 47 sacks, 16 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries. The Steelers were also third in the NFL in fewest points allowed at 19.1. Fantasy managers should consider the Steelers DST a top-10 option in all formats with a late-round selection.

Minnesota Vikings vs Giants
- The Vikings defense lost standout pass rusher Danielle Hunter this offseason, but Minnesota added some reinforcements in free agency with Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman. Then, the Vikings added Dallas Turner in the NFL Draft, and the Vikings DST could be a nice surprise this season. We need to see it from the Vikings DST first before recommending the unit as a starting option, but the Vikings DST could be worth adding off the waiver wire in all leagues during the season.

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