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NFL Schedule

Sit or Start for Week 1

May 24, 2022 (Updated Every Thursday)

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Sit Jared Goff vs Bears

Per Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site, one thing to watch Friday will be how Blough and Tim Boyle, who have been battling for the team's No. 2 QB job, fare in the contest. Goff is locked in as the Detroit's starting signal caller ahead of Week 1 action.

Player Expected Output
Comp.	Att.	Comp %	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	TDs	INTs
25.01	37.15	67.32	225	6	0.97	0.55

Sit MATT RYAN vs Texans

We are finally going to see what Ryan looks like without Julio Jones. That doesn't sound appealing, does it? There's actually been 42 games in Ryan's career he's played without Jones. In those games, he's averaged 43.5 fewer yards, 0.13 fewer touchdowns, and 0.07 more interceptions, which may not sound like a lot, but it all adds up to 2.9 fewer fantasy points per game, and it's not as if Ryan was an elite fantasy starter with Jones. On top of that, Ryan has a new head coach, and one whose offenses have ranked 30th and 31st in pass attempts over the last two years. Ryan is going to be a streamer in 2021, so don't draft him as your every-week option.

Player Expected Output
Comp.	Att.	Comp %	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	TDs	INTs
24.31	35.93	67.65	271	6	1.7	0.84

Risks...

ANDY DALTON vs Buccaneers
- The good news is that Bears GM Ryan Pace says that Andy Dalton will remain the team's starting quarterback entering the season. Pace added that the team has a developmental plan in place for first-round selection Justin Fields. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the team won't anoint Fields as the Day 1 starter, and it probably isn't the worst idea to let him develop behind the scenes early on in his career. Still, the expectation should be that Fields will be starting games at some point in 2021, and it could happen sooner rather than later depending how Dalton performs out of the gate. Facing a stingy Rams defense in week one will do little to bolster Dalton's long-range cause.

Justin Herbert vs Raiders
- What Herbert did in 2020 was miraculous. There's no two ways about it. To be handed the starting job just one hour before the game in Week 2, then go on to break the rookie record for passing touchdowns (31) is ridiculous. Now, with that being said, he still finished as the QB9 last year while throwing 595 pass attempts, the fourth most in the legaue. Now that he's got a defensive-minded head coach and a healthy defense, we could see the pass attempts dip a bit in 2021, which would certainly hurt his appeal. The Chargers did increase the talent on the offensive line, but also replaced Hunter Henry with Jared Cook, which is a certainly a downgrade. Herbert should still be a solid low-end QB1, but it's tough to see him finishing as a top-five option in 2021.

Daniel Jones vs Cowboys
- This would have been a very good outing for Jones, but he threw an interception in the end zone, rolling right and throwing back across his body. It was ugly. The Giants ran an efficient two-minute drill that ended with a nice pass from Jones to Kaden Smith over the middle. This has been the M.O. for Jones throughout his career, some good, some terrible. He has a solid floor and offers upside, but we haven't seen enough positive at this point in his career to justify taking him in redraft leagues as a starter. Until he proves otherwise, Jones is strictly a QB2 or bye week fill-in.

Tua Tagovailoa vs Bills
- It's really unfair to judge Tagovailoa after a pretty weak rookie season, as he dealt with an injury throughout the offseason, had no preseason, and plenty of injuries to his pass catchers. On top of that, he had Ryan Fitzpatrick breathing down his neck. Fast forward to 2021 where Fitzpatrick is gone, and the Dolphins have added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to his stable of pass catchers. If his injuries really limited him in 2020, we could see an explosion in 2021 with the firepower they have at wide receiver, but don't automatically assume that.

Jameis Winston vs Buccaneers
- After their final exhibition contest was canceled, the Saints now have to scramble to find a location for their season opener against Green Bay in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. It equates to a slight matchup downgrade for Winston and others, especially if the new location isn't indoors. Coach Sean Payton confirmed Tuesday morning that he's named Winston as his Week 1 starter over Taysom Hill, per Mike Triplett of ESPN.com.

Start Trevor Lawrence vs Titans

While it's typically tough for a rookie quarterback to make it into top-12 territory, Lawrence is likely the exception to the rule. He comes in as an advanced passer who has tremendous touch on his passes that not many rookies do. The Jaguars defense is in clear rebuild mode, which should allow for plenty of pass attempts, making 4,000-plus passing yards likely. On top of that, Lawrence has great mobility and is likely to rush for 400-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns on the ground. That alone should get him into the top-15, with a good chance at top-12. His first-ever start comes against the hapless Texans. We recommend rolling the dice with the rookie this week.

Player Expected Output
Comp.	Att.	Comp %	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	TDs	INTs
23.75	39.05	60.81	239	19	0.86	0.64

Start RYAN TANNEHILL vs Jaguars

Tannehill has been disrespected by the fantasy community long before Julio Jones was traded there. Tannehill became the starter of the Titans in Week 7 of 2019. Since that time, he's tallied 575.3 fantasy points, which ranks third among quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. That's right... despite ranking 16th in pass attempts during that time (26-game sample size), he's finished with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson.

Player Expected Output
Comp.	Att.	Comp %	Pass Yds	Rush Yds	TDs	INTs
20.01	29.78	67.19	230	20	1.84	0.53

Rewards...

Jalen Hurts vs Football Team
- There was little doubt that Hurts would win the job after Joe Flacco struggled during camp and Gardner Minshew was a last-minute acquisition. Hurts impressed at the end of the 2020 season, completing 69 passes for 919 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions over four starts. He added 272 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and six fumbles during this span, too. The 23-year-old ranks 11th among quarterbacks in the latest expert consensus draft rankings.

Patrick Mahomes vs Broncos
- Not that fantasy owners had reason to be concerned, but Mahomes gave a little reminder of how dominant the Kansas City offense can be. Mahomes should finish among the leaders in every passing category this season.

Kyler Murray vs Rams
- Murray was extremely good to fantasy managers last year, delivering QB1-type performances 68.8 percent of the time, which was the third-best mark in the league. He wasn't just barely hitting those numbers, either, as he tallied 26-plus fantasy points on eight separate occasions, tied for the most in the league. The Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, while losing Kenyan Drake. This suggests there's going to be more dropbacks, which in turn means more fantasy points. Murray is an every-week starter and worthy of a top-five quarterback selection in the 4th/5th round.

Dak Prescott vs Giants
- Prescott is a midrange QB1 that has top-five upside in fantasy. It could take a couple of weeks to get back into the swing of things, but we expect the Cowboys to be in the position on Thursday night to have to throw early and often to keep up with the Bucs.

AARON RODGERS vs Vikings
- The Packers avoid a true road game, though Rodgers might've been looking forward to slinging the ball around in a dome (career 8.3 YPA, 64:12 TD:INT). In any case, he'll head to Jacksonville to face the Saints before returning to Green Bay to host the Lions on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The Packers recently placed star left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) on the PUP list, but their offense otherwise appears healthy heading into Week 1.

Sit Josh Jacobs vs Chargers

I remember last year when Jacobs was going as a late first-round pick, though I wanted nothing to do with him at that price due to his lack of involvement in the passing game the previous season. Nothing changed except they added more pass catchers. He did get a slight bump in targets (45), though nothing you could rely upon every week. What's changed this offseason? The Raiders decided to pay Kenyan Drake a good chunk of money to come in and share the workload with Jacobs, forcing his fantasy stock to plummet. Drake was essentially the same running back as Jacobs last year, though we've seen him produce in the passing game before. Did the addition of Drake drop Jacobs' price too far, or is this a backfield to simply avoid if possible? I believe he's fallen enough to consider a value as a low-end RB2 who should see be in line for 250-plus touches. The expectations were out of control last year, but if you can get him in the fifth round this year, I'm buying.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
15.38	60	3.08	20	0.67

Sit David Montgomery vs Lions

Sure, Montgomery finished as the RB4 last year. There were many factors that led to that, particularly the injury to Tarik Cohen, freeing up tons of targets in the passing game. Over the course of Montgomery's short career, he's played 19 games with Cohen and 12 games without him. In the games with Cohen, he averaged 2.32 targets per game. In the 12 games without him, that number rose to 4.92 targets per game. Well, Cohen is back, and the team signed Damien Williams, who's a better receiving back than Montgomery. On top of Cohen missing, the Bears had a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, playing against the Packers twice, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars to close out the season. Did you know that Montgomery was the RB20 after 10 weeks (prior to starting that schedule)? He's a fine low-end RB2, but don't go about your day thinking you're getting a steal in the fourth round or anything.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
19.52	70	3.64	28	0.52

Sit Zack Moss vs Dolphins

Devin Singletary got the start and most of the snaps on a lengthy opening drive, but he finished with no carries and two catches for only eight yards. Matt Breida also saw a little work with the first-team offense, and his 16-yard gain was the team's only chunk play in the running game before halftime. Moss figures to be part of a two- or even three-man committee to start the season, with Buffalo kicking things off against Pittsburgh in Week 1.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
8.88	33	1.78	17	0.47

Risks...

Saquon Barkley vs Cowboys
- He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Fantasy managers should still expect Barkley to get eased into action over the first week or two of the season after he just returned to team drills recently. How quickly he resumes his usual bell-cow role will depend on how he looks in and recovers from those early games. If Barkley is held back a bit early, Devontae Booker will serve as the primary back.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs Broncos
- He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Edwards-Helaire emerged from preseason Week 2 with a sprained ankle, which coach Andy Reid said didn't appear to be of the high-ankle variety, per Adam Schefter of ESPN. No matter, the injury kept Edwards-Helaire out of practice in the interim, according to Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star. If both Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams (head) are sidelined Friday, the Chiefs will be down to RBs Jerick McKinnon, Darwin Thompson and Derrick Gore and FB Michael Burton out of the backfield.

Leonard Fournette vs Saints
- It's easy to recall the good times Fournette had in the playoffs and use that as a reason to move him up draft boards, but don't let a couple games spoil what was a very mediocre season. He finished with more than 52 rushing yards just once all year, and that came in Week 2 against the Panthers. Fournette's primary source of fantasy points in 2020 was via the passing game, as he saw 47 targets in 13 games. Unfortunately, the Bucs added Gio Bernard, who's a much better receiver out of the backfield. Knowing that Bernard is the more reliable third-down option and that Ronald Jones is probably the better two-down option, that leaves Fournette in no man's land. He's not someone you're going to want to start every week.

Melvin Gordon vs Chiefs
- Gordon dealt with a groin injury that kept him out for most of training camp. While he's been a household name in fantasy leagues for years, rookie RB Javonte Williams will surely get plenty of touches as well. Gordon is probably best selected in the later rounds of drafts and used as a rotational fantasy player once you get a look at his usage.

D'Andre Swift vs Bears
- He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision) due to a groin injury. He hasn't seen any production in the preseason, but reports out of Detroit say that he'll be ready to go. Still, we don't believe he'll have a great game running the ball against the 49ers defense. How he's used in the passing game is still a bit of a question mark, but he could see Austin Ekeler (from the last few years) volume targets with Anthony Lynn calling plays. Just take a wait and see approach to this week.

Start Chris Carson vs 49ers

Throughout Carson's career, he's produced RB2 or better numbers in 60 percent of his games. That's just a smidge behind Marshawn Lynch's number of 61.7 percent, which goes to show just how undervalued Carson has been to this point. Injuries have been a question, which should lower his ADP a bit, but when on the field, Carson is a borderline RB1 who the Seahawks signed to a fresh new deal this offseason.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
13.42	60	1.44	6	0.61

Start Nick Chubb vs Steelers

Some of the Browns regulars got work Sunday -- quarterback Baker Mayfield, running back Kareem Hunt -- but Chubb was given a pass. Chubb made zero headlines during training camp, which is a good thing. Chubb and the Browns will begin preparations for Week 1 of the regular season at Kansas City.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
18.65	91	1.35	11	0.36

Start Aaron Jones vs Vikings

I do an article every year highlighting which players performed better than expected based on where their touches took place, as well as how many carries/targets they receive. Aaron Jones has finished No. 7, No. 4, No. 4, and No. 16 over the last four years on that list, which highlights just how good he is. During that time, he's scored 143.4 more fantasy points than the average running back would've. Him and Alvin Kamara are much more similar than most realize. You take proven production at the top of drafts, and Jones has proven it time-and-time again. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever show up to the Packers, he does lose a bit of his touchdown upside, though.

Player Expected Output
Att.	Yards	Rec.	Rec. Yards	TDs
11.41	53	3.84	27	0.54

Rewards...

Dalvin Cook vs Packers
- Despite missing four games over the last two years, Cook has still managed to rack up 3,572 total yards and 30 touchdowns. He's still yet to play 16 games in his four-year career, but when he's on the field, he's a surefire RB1. In each of the final 12 games he played in 2020, he touched the ball a minimum of 17 times, including 24-plus touches in nine of them. The craziest part about his numbers, though, is the fact that he has 97 receptions for 880 yards over the last two years, but just one receiving touchdown, so there's room for even more of a ceiling. Look for him to get off to a good start against a suspect Bengals defense.

Gus Edwards vs Bengals
- After watching J.K. Dobbins and Justice Hill fall to injuries, Gus is the last man standing in the Ravens backfield from last year. Edwards doesn't offer much upside as a receiver but has been effective when called upon. As an early-down runner, he offers size and toughness and while not the dynamic talent that is Dobbins, he'll have 2021 upside, especially inside the five yard line. As always, Lamar Jackson's rushing proclivity remains a concern for all running backs in Baltimore. Edwards is still only 26 years of age and stands to benefit in 2021 and could be in for a breakout season. He should be a decent DFS buy too.

Austin Ekeler vs Raiders
- In eight full games with Justin Herbert under center last year, Ekeler saw 63 targets. Over a full 16-game season, that amounts to 126 targets. While I don't expect him to get there, he's one of just two running backs (Christian McCaffrey is the other) who we're projecting for 100-plus targets in 2021. Targets are worth twice as much as carries, so even if Ekeler winds up getting just 12 carries per game, it's not the end of the world. In fact, he can still finish as a borderline RB1 if he were to hit just 200 carries on the season. The new coaching staff obviously brings on some potential volatility, but there's not much other talent on the roster at running back, so his role should be very safe. Look for him to be busy in week 1.

Alvin Kamara vs Buccaneers
- It's a change that benefits Green Bay, with the Saints essentially losing a home game at the Superdome, instead playing outdoors in what likely will be hot weather. Kamara is still a strong RB1 play in all formats, but it is possible he plays a few less snaps than usual if it's a hot day in Jacksonville.

Christian McCaffrey vs Falcons
- Analyzing various factors very carefully, we expect him to post nice fantasy stats this week. Coach Matt Rhule hinted Monday that McCaffrey would be "very, very limited" in the exhibition finale, if the running back got on the field at all, per Gantt. But it appears the Panthers will save McCaffrey for Week 1 against the Jets, when he'll receive his usual immense volume. Over the previous three seasons as the team's workhorse back, he averaged 23 touches for 135.2 yards from scrimmage per game while scoring 38 TDs in 35 contests.

RAHEEM MOSTERT vs Bills
- Mostert should be in store for a good season, but expect a RBBC in San Fran. Both tailbacks will almost certainly split carries throughout the season, with Sermon possibly earning the lion's share of touches later in the year and at the goal line. While this is a great situation for the 49ers, it's likely to be a frustrating one for fantasy managers. That said, we trust that Mostert will get off to a hot start against the lowly Lions.

James Robinson vs Titans
- Robinson is set to handle lead duties once again with Travis Etienne (foot) out for the season, and while the offense will likely look very different with Trevor Lawrence under center and Urban Meyer running the show, Robinson's three-down skill set and powerful running style should result in significant touch volume once again, even if Carlos Hyde cuts into his action on early downs. Robinson should be a good value against the rebuilding Texans.

Sit Kenny Golladay vs Cowboys

We did caution that missed time for a number of key players this summer could make things difficult for the Giants offense early in the season. Golladay, RB Saquon Barkley (knee) and WR Kadarius Toney (undisclosed) haven't practiced much this summer, but all appear tentatively on track for Week 1. Golladay being dinged up most of last year and now a lot of camp and preseason this year is enough to cause us some concern about relying on Golladay until he proves he can be relied on with the Giants.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
3.23	43	0

Sit Tyler Lockett vs 49ers

Lockett is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Lockett finished as the No. 9 fantasy wide receiver last year, but ask anyone who rostered him if he was a WR1. Heck, as them if he was a reliable WR2. The answer would be no, as he finished with WR2 or better numbers just 37.5 percent of the time which was behind players like Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel, John Brown, and Jamison Crowder. How's that possible? Because 48.7 percent of his production last year came from just three games. He's going to have massive games, but relying on him as anything more than a volatile WR3 is going to lead to disappointment.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
4.37	58	0.48

Risks...

Marquez Callaway vs Buccaneers
- Callaway set the world on fire during the preseason, but he's destined for a matchup with Jaire Alexander of the Packers. Jaire is one of the top corners in the league and demonstrated a lot of success in slowing down his opposition's top receiving target last year.

Ja'Marr Chase vs Ravens
- Chase has had the case of the dropsies this camp and preseason. His time for success is likely coming, but we like Tyler Boyd's and even Tee Higgin's prospects better this week.

Allen Robinson vs Cardinals
- Robinson figures to be the focal point of the Bears offensive aerial attack. However, a match-up against Ramsey makes us uncomfortable in week 1. Find another better bet as Ramsey really locked down his opposing WRs last year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs Broncos
- Though it was better than his 2019 season, there were plenty of ups and downs from Smith-Schuster in 2020. Part of the reason for inconsistency is due to Ben Roethlisberger's volatile performance, but even if he rights the ship in 2021, the bigger part of the problem for Smith-Schuster is the competition he has for targets. Chase Claypool will be entering his sophomore season, Diontae Johnson seemed to figure out his drops as the year went on, and they added Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth in the first two rounds of the draft. Suddenly, Smith-Schuster might be third in line for targets in this offense. He'll probably finish as a WR3, but we just don't see the upside to drafting him as anything more than a low-end WR3 or plugging him into your lineup with those expections right now.

Start Robby Anderson vs Falcons

Anderson is fresh off signing a two-year, $29.5 million extension coming off a 95-catch season. This week's game features a revenge match for Anderson as well as QB Sam Darnold. Look for Anderson to tally at least one big-play and perhaps a TD this week to boot.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
3.27	34	0.37

Start Brandin Cooks vs Colts

Over the last six years, there have been just seven wide receivers who've finished top-24 in at least five of them. Those receivers are Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, and... Cooks. He's done it with four different quarterbacks, too. However, 2021 might be his toughest test yet, as it appears Tyrod Taylor will be his quarterback, and this is projected to be the lowest scoring offense in the league. Still, he's the clear-cut top option on this team and should be a lock to see 100-plus targets as long as he's healthy.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
5.83	70	0.46

Start Corey Davis vs Patriots

We got somewhat of a breakout season from Davis last year, as he finished with 65 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns despite missing two games and playing second fiddle to A.J. Brown. He signed with the Jets in free agency and figures to be their go-to receiver, though there are suddenly tons of mouths to feed in New York. The Jets also added Keelan Cole in free agency, drafted Elijah Moore in the second round, and managed to restructure Jamison Crowder's contract to keep him in town. On top of all that, they have a rookie quarterback under center, which presents another obstacle. Davis is likely to be the leader in targets, but he may not have enough consistency to be a weekly WR3. Ideally, you draft him as a WR4 to play in spots and we like this spot in week 1.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs

Start Diontae Johnson vs Browns

Despite missing one full game and a large portion of another, Johnson finished with 144 targets in 2020, which ranked sixth among wide receivers. Unfortunately, he was not particularly efficient with them, averaging just 6.4 yards per target. Part of his issues were drops, but Ben Roethlisberger's drop-down mentality certainly didn't help, either. Still, chasing targets at wide receiver is never a bad thing. If Johnson would've averaged just 7.4 yards per target (easily attainable), he would've finished as the WR14. He should be a safe high-floor WR2 with upside for top-12 numbers.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
6.33	69	0.52

Rewards...

Davante Adams vs Chargers
- If you're planning on taking a wide receiver in the first round, you'd better make sure he's going to perform without question. Adams is that player, as he's performed as a WR1 in 22 of his last 41 games (53.7 percent), which is historically good, and it's a three-year sample size. During that time, he's scored fewer than 11.1 PPR points just four times, and once was due to leaving with an injury. As long as Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers, Adams will be a can't-miss WR1 as they start their "Last Dance".

KEENAN ALLEN vs Raiders
- Would you believe us if we told you that Keenan Allen failed to record 1,000 yards last season? It's true. Despite seeing 147 targets (5th in NFL), he finished with 992 yards (17th among wide receivers). The Chargers offense is surely going to change with Anthony Lynn out of the picture, so the hope should be that they'll utilize Allen down the field just a tad more to increase his numbers. The good news is that Justin Herbert clearly found his "go-to" receiver, targeting Allen 10-plus times on 10 separate occasions. He's an extremely safe WR2 based on volume alone, though it may be tough for him to get into the top-tier WR1 conversation seeing he's never scored more than eight touchdowns.

Tyler Boyd vs Ravens
- Boyd, Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase make up a great trio of WRs. Cincinnati offense haven't been especially encouraging, but there's little question it'll be a pass-happy offense, so Boyd should continue to see steady targets out of the slot even while competing with Chase and Tee Higgins. The sixth-year pro opens his season with a home game against Minnesota, potentially seeing primary coverage from Mackensie Alexander, who was Cincinnati's slot corner last year.

Tyreek Hill vs Bills
- Hill was more of a streaky wide receiver early in his career who relied on big plays to get him into WR1 territory, though that seemingly ended in 2020 where he saw 10-plus targets in seven different games. Those numbers combined with his efficiency equals big things, and there's no reason to think they go away; Travis Kelce is going to be 32 years old, Sammy Watkins is gone, and they brought in no big-name wide receivers who are guaranteed much of anything. He's worthy of a late first-round range pick in fantasy drafts and should start 2021 off well.

DeAndre Hopkins vs Rams
- When drafting a wide receiver in the first couple rounds, you can't afford to miss on them. Is there anyone more reliable than Hopkins? He's now seen at least 150 targets in six straight seasons and has finished as a top-five receiver in five of them. Sure, the Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, but that's not going to stop Kyler Murray from going to his favorite target.

Cooper Kupp vs Cardinals
- It seemed like the Rams wanted to stretch the middle of the field with Kupp at times over the last couple years, though Jared Goff's inability to accurately throw the ball downfield hindered Kupp's upside. Of the eight deep targets he saw in 2020, just one was catchable. Kupp's not a burner by any means, but if he doesn't have splash plays, he's not going to be anything more than a boring PPR asset. There's more to his game than what we've seen, and it's possible that Matthew Stafford unlocks it. He should be treated as a safe, high-floor WR2.

CeeDee Lamb vs Giants
- Lamb will be ready to rock and roll entering next Thursday's opener against the Bucs. His ADP has seen a steady rise all offseason, but there's a legitimately high fantasy ceiling with the second-year wideout. Lamb offers an intriguing floor-ceiling combo in the third round of drafts right now and projects as a solid late fantasy #1 WR this year.

Terry McLaurin vs Eagles
- McLaurin is the centerpiece of Washington's passing game heading into a Week 1 home date with the Chargers. We like his chances at success this week.

DK Metcalf vs 49ers
- When Metcalf came into the NFL, he was considered a "raw" prospect who had plenty of room to grow as a route runner. He's not only lived up to expectations, but has started to exceed them, finishing as a WR2 or better in 50 percent of his games in 2020, which ranked 13th among wide receivers, so the consistency was much better in year two. Then you get his "boom" performances that carry him to the next level, which is why he finished as the WR7 in half-PPR formats. Tied to Russell Wilson as his No. 1 target, Metcalf is one of the safest bets as a top-12 wide receiver.

Deebo Samuel vs Seahawks
- Deebo and Aiyuk have potential to be the team's top wideout. Deebo will now turn his attention toward Week 1's matchup against the Lions, when teammate Brandon Aiyuk's slight hamstring issue could be worthwhile to monitor in relation to Samuel's stock. We're figuring that hamstring will cause enough problems for us to upgrade Samuel's stock this week.

DeVonta Smith vs Football Team
- If you're looking for the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver for his team who's not being drafted like it, Smith is your guy. The Eagles were severely lacking wide receiver talent last year, and it led to them trading up to take Smith to solidify their go-to receiver for Jalen Hurts. Smith was the most pro-ready receiver in the draft, though some are concerned with his lack of weight. Even though every college knew he was getting the ball, they couldn't stop him, and it's not like Alabama plays weak opponents. He dominated everyone he came across. As someone who should get a consistent six-plus targets per game, Smith should be a WR3, even in his rookie season.

Sit Austin Hooper vs Jaguars

Despite Odell Beckham missing most of the 2020 season, Hooper wound up with just 70 targets on his new team. Sure, Hooper himself missed three games, but we also watched rookie Harrison Bryant making a name for himself, and will likely get more targets in 2021. With tight ends, you need someone who'll consistently get 5-6 targets per game, or you're streaming the position. With Beckham back and Bryant ascending in his career, you're not going to get a consistent 5-6 targets per game out of Hooper, making him a streamer.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
2.79	28	0.21

Risks...

Evan Engram vs Titans
- Engam is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Duggan adds that Engram was having a good summer prior to injuring his calf in the final preseason game. The tight end has been a repeated disappointment for both fantasy managers and the Giants, but he just turned 27 and stills ranks among the league's fastest players at his position. That said, he'll likely lose a bunch of last year's snaps to Kyle Rudolph, who also looks questionable for Week 1 in the aftermath of offseason foot surgery. Engram wore full pads for Thursday's practice, but he was then limited to side work with the training staff, according to Art Stapleton of The Bergen Record. Giants coach Joe Judge called it a "down day" for the tight end, noting that Engram likely will be held out through the weekend at the very least, per John Fennelly of Yahoo. The team will release its first injury report Wednesday, ahead of next Sunday's opener against the Broncos at the Meadowlands.

Noah Fant vs 49ers
- Fant is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). He's been out of practice for more than a week now, leaving Albert Okwuegbunam, Eric Saubert and Andrew Back as the Broncos' tight ends. The Broncos expect Fant to play Week 1 against the Giants, but we'll start to be concerned if he isn't on the practice field next week. Even if he returns, he isn't expected to be 100%.

Hunter Henry vs Jets
- For a real change, Hunter Henry is dinged up. He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision). Henry has been managing a shoulder injury and has been limited in practice, so this comes as no surprise. The tight end will now shift his focus to readying for Week 1 action, when he'll look to combine with fellow free-agent acquisition Jonnu Smith to form a potent 1-2 punch at a position that wasn't very productive for the Patriots in 2020. With his injury history and him not being 100%, it's tough to project him as a very good fantasy option this week.

Kyle Pitts vs Panthers
- Pitts should be a very good player for a very long time, but we've seen highly-athletic tight ends have trouble out of the gate before. In fact, rookie tight ends in general have trouble producing. We want to ask you a question: Since 1998, how many tight ends do you think have topped 627 yards in their rookie season? Two of them. Both of those tight ends saw 115-plus targets, a number Pitts isn't likely to see with Arthur Smith as the new head coach. It helps that Julio Jones has left town, but don't forget that ultra-athletic Jonnu Smith saw just 65 targets in Smith's offense just last year, and he wasn't a rookie. However, we see Pitts operating at times as more of a third receiver or perhaps second receiver, than lining up as a strictly in-line TE, so the potential is there for better production provided this role.

Robert Tonyan vs Vikings
- Tonyan was a TD vulture last year as over 20% of his catches wound up as TDs. He amassed 52 catches for 586 yards and a whopping 11 TDs, a year after turning in a meager 10 catches for 100 yards and 1 TD. Look for him to regress back to the mean this year as other Packers will surely get more involved in the short-yardage passing game. Perhaps Randall Cobb?

Start Dallas Goedert vs Football Team

Even with Zach Ertz still in town, the general expectation is that Goedert will take the lead in Philadelphia's tight end rotation this year, so they need him ready to make a leading contribution against Atlanta in Week 1. The Falcons struggled a bit against TEs last year, so we like Dallas Goedert's chances at success this week.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs
0.29	4	0.02

Start Jonnu Smith vs Jets

Smith's talent was not put on display nearly enough with the Titans, as he never saw more than 65 targets in a single season. Despite that, he finished as a top-12 tight end in 2020. The Patriots were aggressive with him, signing him the first day of free agency to a four-year, $50 million deal, which tells us all we need to know: They aren't going to hide him. The signing of Hunter Henry hurt his projection a bit, but the drafting of Mac Jones improved it a bit because once he takes over as the starter, this team will throw a lot more. Once you get outside the top five tight ends, you're chasing upside, and Smith has plenty of it.

Player Expected Output
Receptions	Rec. Yards	TDs

Rewards...

Mark Andrews vs Bengals
- It's kind of crazy how much Andrews gets disrespected by the fantasy community. He's tallied 2,105 yards and 20 touchdowns over his first three seasons in the league. That's the ninth-most yardage by a tight end in the post-merger era during his first three seasons. You know what other tight ends are on that list? George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Kellen Winslow. Sure, the Ravens went out and added some pass catchers, but Andrews is the go-to option for Lamar Jackson over the middle of the field and in the red zone. Health has been the biggest obstacle for Andrews, but if he's able to stay on the field, he should be the No. 4 tight end off the board. He's in the must-start category at TE when he's healthy.

Tyler Higbee vs Cardinals
- There've been six times over the course of Higbee's career where he's tallied more than 67 yards. Five of those games came at the end of the 2019 season when Gerald Everett was either out of the lineup or very limited. Well, Everett has been signed by the Seahawks, and the next man up on the Rams depth chart to fill his spot is Bryce Hopkins, who's seen as many targets as I have in an NFL uniform (none). Eliminating Everett's targets and upgrading Higbee's quarterback is the recipe for success, and it shouldn't shock anyone to see Higbee finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021.

TJ Hockenson vs Bears
- Gone are the days of having Herman Moore, Brett Perriman, and Johnnie Morton. Gone is Calvin Johnson. As is Golden Tate and now Kenny Golladay. The Lions don't have any WRs that make another team worry. As a result, tight end T.J. Hockenson is really the Lion's go-to guy as a pass catcher this year as their WR corps is paper thin. That means big ole Hockenson should be in the must start category as long as he's healthy.

Hayden Hurst vs Ravens
- The Falcons played most of their starts, but not QB Matt Ryan or WR Calvin Ridley. They opened with Hurst and Kyle Pitts in a two-TE formation, which could be the base look this season after Atlanta's WR group took a big hit with the Julio Jones trade. New head coach Arthur Smith was a big proponent of multi-TE formations during his time in Tennessee, and that should continue in Atlanta, though the offense will look much different out of necessity without Derrick Henry and a top O-line. While unlikely to match last year's workload, Hurst should see a few targets in Atlanta's Sept. 12 opener against the Eagles and could surprise and be a hot waiver-wire commodity. He might be a sneaky good DFS play this week too.

TRAVIS KELCE vs Broncos
- We're getting close to the age where tight ends typically fall off with Kelce (32 in October) but he's shown no signs of slowing down, as he just broke the all-time record for yards in a season by a tight end. The Chiefs didn't really add anyone to the offense who should jeapordize his targets, and in fact, losing Sammy Watkins may only add to his appeal. Not only did he finish as the No. 1 tight end and give you a massive weekly advantage at an unpredictable position, but he would've finished as the No. 4 wide receiver. So, if drafting a tight end early scares you, just think of him like a wide receiver who you can play in your tight end slot. He's worth a late first-round pick.

George Kittle vs Seahawks
- The former All-Pro tight end will now turn his attention toward Week 1's matchup against the Lions as he and another fantastic TE out of Iowa go head-to-head. Look for Kittle to pick up as the 49ers #1 target.

Adam Trautman vs Buccaneers
- He is currently listed as Questionable on the injury report, and may wind up being a dreaded GTD (Game Time Decision).When running through projections on the Saints, it's easy to fall in love with Trautman this year. Outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, they don't have any reliable targets, and Trautman did well with his opportunity last year. After parting ways with both Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook, there's suddenly a lot of opportunity available for him. There would certainly be less appeal if Taysom Hill were the starter, but many are expecting Jameis Winston to be under center come Week 1. Whatever the case, Trautman makes for a great late-round pick where you'll find out exactly what you have in the first game of the season. There's a scenario where he finishes as a top-10 tight end.

Darren Waller vs Chargers
- We remember owners getting Waller in the fifth or sixth round last year, and though it never felt amazing while doing it, the end result worked out. Why didn't it feel amazing? He's part of the Raiders offense, that lacks potency. The targets were what we were chasing, and the targets are what they got. But when you're paying TE2 prices in the second round, you not only need the targets, you need touchdowns. While Waller scored nine of them last year, he scored just three of them in 2019 in the same offense. There's a reason people pay up for Travis Kelce, and while we like Waller, we just don't see that guaranteed Kelce-like production. Still, Waller is the go-to guy in the passing game and is a must start each and every week at TE.

Sit Rodrigo Blankenship vs Texans

Blankenship had a fine rookie season with the Colts. He ranked fourth in the NFL in field-goal attempts with 37 and converted 86.5% of his tries. Along with his 43 extra-point conversation, Blankenship ended the year as the sixth-best kicker in fantasy. Kicking in a dome and for an offense that should again be able to move the ball well but perhaps not score touchdowns at will, Blankenship should be a fine fantasy option once again. However, we have questions about their starting lineup in week 1 with Wentz a major question mark and T.Y. Hilton out. Surely, there are better options available with less risk.

Player Expected Output
FGM	FGA	XPM
1.84338	2.34612	1.65634

Sit Daniel Carlson vs Chargers

Daniel Carlson had a solid season last year, ranking third in kicker scoring, but faces a vaunted Ravens defense this week. Baltimore allowed the fewest fpg to opposing kickers last year, thus we suggest a better alternative for your fantasy kicker this week.

Player Expected Output
FGM	FGA	XPM
2.15926	2.32123	1.5907

Risks...

CHRIS BOSWELL vs Browns
- Chris Boswell ranked 25th in fantasy kicker scoring last year and faces a Bills defense that was stingy (6th best) to opposing kickers in 2020.

Jake Elliott vs Football Team
- Jake Elliott finished the 2020 season 14-for-19 on field goal attempts and 24-for-26 on extra point tries, so clearly there are better options available at kicker than him.

MATT PRATER vs Rams
- Prater had a poor fantasy season for several reasons. He attempted only 28 field goals and hardly made the most of them, converting only 21. That 75% field goal percentage was his worst since 2008, and his accuracy from long-range, usually his calling card, waned significantly, as he went just 10-for-17 from 40 yards or more (though he did set the NFL record for most career field goals of 50-yards or more). He signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals in the offseason and Arizona's fast-paced offense should allow for extra opportunities for Prater. He's not the kicker he once was, but he should see enough volume and have enough juice left in his leg to be a startable option as a streamer in some weeks. We just don't prefer him this week.

Start Matt Gay vs Cardinals

Gay was been a solid producer for Rams down the stretch last season and that should continue to bleed into the 2021 campaign as their new QB should figure to put them in scoring range more frequently than they saw last year.

Player Expected Output
FGM	FGA	XPM
2.02791	2.1546	3.89728

Start Younghoe Koo vs Panthers

Koo scored the most fantasy points per game of any kicker, and would have been the tops overall at the position had he not missed a game because of a COVID-19 situation. Koo missed just two field goals all year, and was a perfect 8-for-8 from 50 yards or more. He'll again play in a dome in Atlanta, but with new head coach Arthur Smith and an offense that will be slower and less explosive without Julio Jones, it's far from a sure thing that he'll see 39 field-goal attempts again. Nevertheless, the indoor environment and Koo's success from long range makes him a top-five option at the kicker position.

Player Expected Output
FGM	FGA	XPM
1.71097	1.83777	2.43582

Rewards...

Harrison Butker vs Broncos
- Butker had the worst fantasy season of his career, though it was hardly his fault. He set a career-high by hitting 92.6% of his field-goal attempts, including all four of his ones from 50 or more yards. The problem was largely the lack of volume, as he attempted just 27 field goals on the season after 38 the year before. Even with his "down" year, Butker remains one of the most accurate kickers in the game playing on an elite offense.

RYAN SUCCOP vs Saints
- Succop doesn't have the strongest leg, but Tom Brady and Co. should keep Succop busy enough to maintain fantasy value this season. He converted 28 of 31 field-goal attempts (91.2 percent) and 52 of 57 PATs (91.2 percent) for the Super Bowl champs last regular season, and he then missed just one kick (a PAT) in four playoff games.

JUSTIN TUCKER vs Bengals
- Tucker's job was all but guaranteed, as he remains one of the best kickers in the NFL. The 31-year-old has missed just two field-goals inside of 50 yards in the past two seasons and has made more than 89 percent of his field goals in five consecutive seasons. The veteran kicker has appeared in all 16 regular-season games during all nine of his years in the NFL.

Sit Cleveland Browns vs Steelers

The Browns' fantasy defense is a threat this year, but we don't like their matchup against the high-octane Chiefs who seriously limited fantasy points to opposing defenses last year.

Player Expected Output
Sacks	Interceptions	Fumble Recoveries

Sit New Orleans Saints vs Buccaneers

The Saints have a home game in Jacksonville this week as they had to move from New Orleans due to the aftermath of Ida. We figure they would have fared better in the dome. Well, facing off against a Rodgers-led Packers offense with one of, if not the best WR in football, 2 good RBs, and the reigning league MVP is not a good value.

Player Expected Output
Sacks	Interceptions	Fumble Recoveries

Risks...

Dallas Cowboys vs Giants
- The Cowboys' defense will feature Micah Parsons who appears to have a ton of potential, but playing against the loaded Bucs offense oozing with skill players is not a recipe for fantasy success. The Bucs feature several great options at WR, RB, and TE, let alone the greatest QB of all time.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Browns
- The Bills offense was firing on all cylinders late in the 2020 season, so while the Steelers offer a very feared pass rush, we don't love this matchup.

Start San Francisco 49ers vs Seahawks

The Lions should have an improved offensive line, but their starting Right Tackle (Penei Sewell) showed significant rust during the preseason and they have some questions at OG. Their projected started RB has been out with a groin injury and they might have the league's bottom WR corps with a QB that doesn't push the ball down the field. With this meager offense, look for the 49ers D/ST to enjoy a great week 1 as we expect them to limit the Lions ability to move the football!

Player Expected Output
Sacks	Interceptions	Fumble Recoveries

Start Denver Broncos vs Chiefs

The Giants' three best skill players (Saquan Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Evan Engram) are the walking wounded. Worse yet, they play behind one of the shakiest offensive lines in football. Meanwhile, Denver has the defensive players that should match up nicely, thus yielding them a solid sum of fantasy points in week 1.

Player Expected Output
Sacks	Interceptions	Fumble Recoveries

Rewards...

Washington Football Team vs Eagles
- While the Chargers invested heavily in their offensive line, the Washington front four is a force to be reckoned with. Look for the Washington defense to be solid week in and week out this year.

Los Angeles Rams vs Cardinals
- The Rams defense should enjoy playing against a suspect Bears offensive line this week. While Andy Dalton has been an okay game manager, we're expecting the Rams defense to look pretty good in week 1.

Minnesota Vikings vs Packers
- The Bengals have some good skill position weapons but don't project to have a very good offensive line. That may mean that the Vikings can generate some pass rush and affect the game in the backfield.

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