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MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Over the past two seasons, Williams' 17-game pace is 81 catches for 1,196 yards and eight touchdowns. Those numbers would have made Williams a top-12 wide receiver last year. Unfortunately, he's never actually played 17 games in a season and he's only played 16 twice in six years, and even when Williams has been active he's often been playing through something. He missed OTAs due to a back injury and the Chargers still aren't sure if Williams will need surgery for that injury. That may shed some light on why the team spent a first-round pick on Quentin Johnston, who could be a carbon copy of Williams in the NFL. Due to questions about his health and Johnston's impact on his target share, we wouldn't draft Williams before Round 7.
Godwin is expected to take off as a target hog in 2023 with Mike Evans' efficiency dropping off a cliff in 2022 and the lack of target competition outside of him. The case for Godwin rests on his individual target share volume, the fact that the Buccaneers will be throwing often while playing from behind, and the fact that he could have another gear to his game now one year removed from the ACL injury. Godwin finished as a WR2 or better in just four weeks during the 2022 season. If he wants to develop into a more consistent Fantasy asset, Godwin's 99th-highest average depth of target (5.6) has to rise. Godwin projects more as a WR3 in 2023.
We like Lockett as a No. 3 receiver worth a pick in Round 7 this year. Once again, he'll probably beat our expectations. The 31-year-old has new target competition in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he also has four consecutive years with at least 1,000 yards and five straight years with eight or more touchdowns. Among players with at least 700 career targets, Locket's 9.6 yards per target ranks fourth, behind only DeSean Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, and Julio Jones. Lockett's aDOT has fluctuated wildly the past four years, ranging from 9.7 in 2020 to 14.6 in 2021 back down to 10.6 last year. With Smith-Njigba likely working more in the slot, it could balloon again this year, leading to fewer catches but more big plays.
Higgins is clearly a big part of the Bengals passing game, but does he have a big enough job to warrant a top-30 pick in Fantasy drafts? Last year, Higgins averaged 13.8 PPR points per game (19th best among receivers) and logged six games with 15-plus Fantasy points and another four with 13-to-14 Fantasy points. That underwhelming consistency is only further concerning when you learn two of the six with 15-plus and two more of the 13-14 point variety came when teammate Ja'Marr Chase was inactive. In fact, since Chase entered the NFL in 2021, Higgins has 10 games with 15-plus PPR points when the two have played together. This doesn't make Higgins a bad Fantasy WR, but it does make reaching for him on Draft Day a potentially bad decision. He's worthy of a mid-Round 3 pick in PPR and a late Round 3 pick in non-PPR.
After finishing as WR16 in 2021, Pittman's value took a hit because of inconsistent quarterback play, and that's putting it politely because it was closer to disgusting than inconsistent, but I'm not here to get hung up on semantics. This "overvalued" designation has nothing to do with Pittman as a player; this is 100% about the situation he finds himself in, yet again, with an inaccurate QB under center. This time he gets this year's No. 4 overall draft pick, Anthony Richardson, throwing him the ball -- which is the one part of Richardson's game that needs the most work. Pittman can overcome a lot of things with his size, but he's going to need some serious help to get back to his days as a top-20 WR. Pittman currently is my WR30.
There is a wide range of opinions on Samuel this year, which makes sense because he is one of the most unique players in Fantasy. We all view him as a No. 2 wide receiver who should be drafted somewhere between Round 3 and Round 5. Samuel's production fell from 21.3 FPPG in 2021 (WR3) to 13.0 FPPG in 2022 (WR30). He posted by far his worst yards per route run of his career at 1.69 and scored only two receiving touchdowns despite 94 targets. In nine games with Christian McCaffrey, he averaged 6.9 targets and 3.4 rush attempts per game compared to 7.6 targets and 3.7 rush attempts per game in his breakout season. In other words, if the efficiency bounces back, the volume is still there.
We view Adams as a top-six wide receiver who should be drafted early in Round 2 in a majority of leagues. Adams' performance last year with Derek Carr and Jarrett Stidham provided further evidence that he is as quarterback-proof as any receiver in the league, so we aren't concerned about how he will do with Jimmy Garoppolo. If Garoppolo's foot does not heal enough for him to play, and the Raiders enter the year with Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell as the starter, we would have to reconsider just how QB-proof he really is. The other concern with Adams is his age, but that is a bigger concern in Dynasty, where he is a No. 2 receiver now, than it is in redraft. Adams has at least 100 catches and 1,300 receiving yards in four of his past five seasons. He's showing no signs of slowing down.
Watson's speed combined with his large size and huge catch radius makes his Fantasy profile desirable, but he could be limited by how accurate Jordan Love is in the Packers' retooled offense. Watson caught just three of four targets from Love in 2022 but turned one of them, a short slant off play-action, into a 63-yard catch-and-run touchdown. Those other two receptions went for at least 15 yards each, a promising result even if as a small sample size. Ultimately, Watson is assumed to be the top target-getter in this offense, and even if the quality of targets he'll get isn't like what it was last year, he should still have some jaw-dropping plays. At least, we better hope so: Four of his seven touchdowns as a rookie came on throws of 14 or more Air Yards, tied for ninth-most among WRs. Expect Watson to go between 40th and 50th overall in all leagues.
Hopkins is still a free agent as of the time of publication. We're currently ranking him as a borderline No. 2 wide receiver who should be drafted between Round 4 and Round 6 in most Fantasy leagues, but that could change depending on where he lands. While Hopkins does have age and injury concerns, he has remained elite when on the field. His 26.7% target/route rate in 2022 was his best mark since 2017 and his 1.99 yards per route run was only slightly below his career average. If Hopkins lands in a place where he is the clear No.1 with a competent QB, he could still be a top-12 wide receiver. But if he chooses chasing a ring over production, his age and recent injuries won't be the only concern.
After five seasons in Carolina, Moore had the best quarterback play during his time in the NFL, and he turned into to a career year. The veteran caught 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns on 130 targets. Although the target total was the fourth-highest of his career, he bested his career high in receiving yards by 171 yards, and his eight scores were one more than his previous career-best mark that he set in 2022. He's under contract with Chicago through 2025. With the expectation that Moore will have at least the same level of quarterback play, and possibly an elevated level, the wideout will likely be one of the top receivers selected in 2024 fantasy drafts.