-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks' pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle's usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let's discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF's deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don't plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don't want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn't been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he's never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he's ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
Dell was one of the most exciting prospects to watch in the entire 2023 NFL Draft class in large part because he plays a lot bigger than his size. This is not another Tavon Austin-type prospect despite them having similar builds. Dell wins with his route-running, and at the collegiate level he was able to utilize his unique ability to stop and start to win at all three levels, not just in the short passing game. The Texans wide receiver room is wide open for business, so if Dell appears to be an early favorite of C.J. Stroud, you should look to draft him with one of your final picks. In rookie-only drafts, it's worth considering him once you get to Round 3.
The Green Bay passing attack is wide open after Christian Watson. Reed will be a starter immediately and should have no problems hopping Romeo Doubs in the pecking order. Reed is a good fit for this offensive system with his strong lower half and YAC ability. He should allow easy completions for Jordan Love with the talent to do something with the ball in his hands. He flashed better route running chops at the Senior Bowl in Mobile than I gave him credit for after examining his college film. Grab him at the end of your drafts. He's worth a stash and hold to see how this Packer offense unfolds. He could easily be a weekly flex play that pays huge dividends as we move through the fantasy season.
Derius Davis earned second-team, All-Big 12 honors as a return specialist in 2021. He followed up his impressive 2021 campaign by winning the 2022 Jet Award, an award given to the best return specialist of the college football season.
Tucker is an undersized speedster who feels like he fits the traditional Raiders model to a T. He profiles most likely as a player who should only be rostered in leagues that reward return yardage, but if he returns kicks for the Raiders, that could be significant with their defensive struggles recently. In rookie-only drafts, Tucker should not be drafted before Round 4. He can be ignored in redraft until he earns a Fantasy-relevant role. If he does, it will likely be as a slot receiver.
Douglas was the second wide receiver drafted by the Patriots in the sixth round after Kayhson Boutte. Douglas is capable in the slot as well as in the return game. He'll likely compete in training camp for a special teams role and could work his way into having a receiving role in the offense.
Parker Washington hit the ground running for the Nittany Lions from Day 1. As an 18-year-old true freshman, Washington broke out with a 28% dominator rating while competing with the likes of two highly-drafted NFL players in Jahan Dotson and Pat Freiermuth. He followed up his first year with a strong second season operating as the No. 2 to Dotson. Washington caught 64 balls for 820 yards and four touchdowns (20% dominator rating). 2022 looked like it was going to be Washington's blow-up season with him firmly in the WR1 chair. Still, Western Kentucky transfer Mitchell Tinsley posted his fair share of production to the dismay of Washington enthusiasts. This resulted in an underwhelming final-season 17% dominator rating for the 5-foot-10 and 204-pound WR that ended with an injury. The early-age production works favorably in Washington's favor, but his lack of a massive junior year will likely hurt his draft capital. There's also the concern of him winning on the outside, with the majority of his production coming from the slot while at Penn State. At least he has a somewhat desirable size compared to the rest of the 2023 WR Draft Class. Envision him as a power slot wide receiver based on his thicker build. His 35% broken/missed tackle rate ranks third best in the class.
Josh Downs posted the No. 2-highest PFF receiving grade versus man coverage in 2022, as he tormented ACC defensive backs with his savant route running from the slot. The slippery-hipped wide receiver earned a 26% dominator rating for his efforts, catching 94 balls (8.5 per game) for 1,029 receiving yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns in his final year as a Tarheel. But one could argue that his junior year wasn't even his best showing. As a sophomore thrust into the starting lineup for the first time, Downs delivered massively with future Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell under center. He earned a 35% dominator rating as the team's true No. 1 Dyami Brown off to the NFL. Downs caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards and 8 TDs. Worth noting that Downs had previously stepped up in Brown's absence in North Carolina's 2020 Bowl Game, catching four balls for 91 yards and two receiving TDs as a 19-year-old freshman. The 171-pound and 5-foot-9 wide receiver is going to be pigeonholed as a "slot-only" wide receiver at the next level with little experience playing outside, but that hardly means he won't produce. Per Sports Info Solutions, no WR in the class ran more unique routes than Downs - a credit to his route-running prowess.
Trey Palmer started his college career at LSU from 2019-2021 but hardly ever sniffed the field on a roster absolutely littered with NFL talent. He transferred to Nebraska this past year and went to the MOON with a 46% dominator rating - the second-highest single-season mark in my sample - as the team's No. 1 wide receiver. He also commanded a whopping 34% target share which ranks second best in the draft class. The 6-foot and 192-pound wideout flashed his blazing speed as a Cornhusker, finishing 2022 seventh overall in yards per route run (3.26) and 10th in receiving yards on deep targets. He cemented his status as one of the fastest WRs in the draft after registering the highest speed (21.15 mph) at the Senior Bowl. He also ran the fastest time at the NFL combine among WRs with a 4.33.
I don't normally have a heavy infatuation with a wide receiver drafted in the fifth round of the NFL Draft, but I do for Puka Nacua. I won't apologize for falling head over heels for a wide receiver that you can easily draft with your final pick in best ball drafts and redraft that ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over the last two years (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Nacua has highlight reel body control and strong mitts. Last year he ranked 17th in contested catch rate (minimum ten contested targets per PFF). Nacua has a fairly easy path to playing time this season, with only Ben Skowronek and Tutu Atwell ahead of him to start camp. Nacua could get some Robert Woods-esque handoffs this year after amassing 357 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns at BYU. Nacua is a smash pick.
Shorter is 6-foot-4, bringing size to the Bills WR room, something there is not an abundance of; he also has the ability to use his size in the red zone and in contested situations. Shorter provides more depth at WR for the Bills as they look for a consistent group to accompany Stefon Diggs.
Cedric Tillman operated as Tennessee's No. 1 WR as a junior in 2021, posting a 32 percent dominator rating. The 21-year-old took over the WR1 chair formerly owned by future Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer and narrowly outproduced another future NFL player, Velus Jones Jr. Tillman totaled 1,081 receiving yards, caught 12 TDs and generated the nation's highest passer rating when targeted (155.8) but elected to forego the NFL and return to school in 2022. He was limited to six games after suffering an ankle injury and was out-shined greatly by his teammate and 2023 draft prospect Jalin Hyatt who took home the Fred Biletnikoff Award. However, in the five games that Tillman played healthy, he outproduced Hyatt with more targets (56, 30% target share vs. 40, 21% target share), catches (35 vs. 30), and yards (401 vs. 367). Tillman's lack of early-career production and age entering the league (23) definitely raise eyebrows about what kind of ceiling he can offer. But his size at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds helps him literally stand out as a prototypical "X" receiver in a class that is severely lacking big-bodied receivers.
Michael Wilson turned heads at the Senior Bowl capping off an impressive week of practice with a standout performance in the all-star game. The 6-foot-2, 213-pound wide receiver caught four-of-six targets for 76 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. It was the exact way that Wilson wanted to finish his college career after missing games due to a season-ending injury. The redshirt senior came back for a fifth year due to the COVID-19 pandemic to boost his draft stock after more missed games due to lower-body/foot injuries. He posted a 20% dominator rating in just six games. If you pro-rate his dominator rating removing his games missed, his dominator rating jumps to 34%. His 2022 season was easily his most productive since his sophomore year when he first broke out. In 2019, he caught 56 balls for 672 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. His age and injury concerns will definitely push him down draft boards, but his strong finish might get him into the Day 2 conversation.
If you took one look at Perry's 2022 season stats and his frame, you'd wonder how he wasn't selected in the first couple of rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft. A closer evaluation of his film shows you that he played in an offensive system that requires a projection to the NFL level. Perry's ability to create consistent separation against NFL defensive backs is a projection, but the 6-foot-4 prospect did rack up 15 touchdowns and 10 catches of 20-plus yards in 2022. Perry should not be on your redraft radar and is better off left on your waiver wire in Dynasty leagues. Perry is a fine gamble in the final round of your rookie-only drafts.
Last year Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share and 107 targets. He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Why can't a talented first-round wide receiver match (or easily exceed) these volume numbers in his first season? Addison can. He absolutely can. Addison has ranked 22nd or higher in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade in each of his last two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. I don't see them dropping outside the top 5-10 teams this season in either category. Addison could be a WR2 in fantasy if he can pass T.J. Hockenson in the target pecking order.
Jonathan Mingo spent his college career at Ole Miss, breaking out this past season with 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five receiving TDs. But had it not been for an injury in 2021, Mingo could have already officially broken out. The 6-foot-2 and 220-pound wideout averaged over 100 receiving yards per game three games into the 2021 season, until he was forced to miss time. Mingo's size/speed profile is also extremely enticing. 4.46 40-yard dash speed with explosive jumps ranking in the 89th percentile. That's scary at 220 pounds
Jalin Hyatt broke out in a massive way in 2022, catching 67 balls for 1,267 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns en route to a 32% dominator rating. After an injury-plagued sophomore campaign, his elite junior season earned him the Fred Biletnikoff Award and unanimous All-American honors. The 6-foot and 176-pound Tennesse Volunteer played 87% of his snaps from the slot, finished sixth in yards per route run (3.27) and boasted the No. 1 passer rating (and almost perfect) when targeted at 156.5. His elite speed is too tough to ignore and is exactly what the L.A. offense needs. Hyatt can roast man coverage, and the quarterback knows it. He was targeted on nearly half of his snaps in single coverage (43%) and generated a near-perfect passer rating (146.7). Hyatt has everything at his disposal to be the next Will Fuller, and his draft stock will be high based on his traits alone. His super explosive traits were on full display during the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine: 40-inch vertical, 4.40 40-yard dash and an overall No.1 finish in the broad jump (135, 96th percentile).
Kayshon Boutte had the opportunity of a lifetime as a true freshman, stepping immediately into the WR1 chair for the Tigers in 2020, with Ja'Marr Chase opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Boutte led LSU with 76 targets, converting his volume into a 22% dominator rating at age 18. In his last game played, he caught 14 balls for 308 receiving yards and three TDs. Terrace Marshall Jr. would enter the NFL the following year, cementing Boutte's status as the team's alpha WR1 in 2021 when he posted another 22% dominator rating in just six games played. When you consider the games that Boutte was healthy in, his dominator rating skyrockets to 41%. But the ankle injury he suffered seriously took its toll on Boutte, who failed to show the same elite playmaking ability he did his first two seasons at LSU in 2022. Although he tied a bow on his college career strong against Georgia, commanding a season-high 11 targets for 107 yards and one touchdown. If Boutte is finally back to 100% health as an NFL rookie, he will undoubtedly be a steal in rookie drafts. The 5-foot-11 and 195-pound wide receiver will not even be 21 years old by the time he is drafted. However, his poor testing will definitely sour some teams. Boutte performed poorly at the Scouting Combine. It was a downright horrible performance across the board for the once highly-touted prospect out of LSU. He finished last in the vertical jump (2nd percentile) and second to last in the broad jump (30th percentile). The former Tiger also underwhelmed with a 4.50 40-time at 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. And you know it's really bad when his closest comps are guys that only degenerates would know about. Who else remembers LaVon Brazill or Rashawn Scott? Me either. His massive fall since his freshman season will no doubt hurt his draft capital come April. Boutte's early-age production remains salivating, but fantasy managers need to proceed with caution amid the flurry of red flags.
Xavier Hutchinson hit the ground running in his first year at Iowa State, hauling 64 balls for 771 receiving yards and four TDs. The former JUCO star from Blinn College - where he played two seasons with future 49ers 3rd-rounder Danny Gray - was 20 years old in his first season as a Cyclone, so the expectation was that he would be ready for the increased competition. Hutchinson continued to deliver productive seasons for two more years with the Cyclones, posting dominator ratings of 26% and 34% to conclude his college career. The 6-foot-2 and 207-pound behemoth finished 2022 with 107 catches (third in the nation) while playing 70% of his snaps out wide. No player in the FBS saw more targets in 2022 than the 22-year-old Hutchinson (161). His 8.9 receptions per game and target share (35%) also led his 2023 WR class. Hutchinson's age (23) is definitely a concern as he looks to make the leap to the NFL. But his football experience and usage suggest if the talent is there, he can make an immediate impact.
Andrei Iosivas has easy and immediate speed that jumps off the screen. Last year he had a 24.2% target share while ranking 18th in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Iosivas is a fantastic athlete as a former track star for Princeton. His 6.71 second time in the 60m was an NCAA Indoor Championship meet record, so it's not surprising to see "run away from you" type of speed on tape. Iosivas displays good ball tracking on deep balls. He does also tend to catch balls with his body. He had trouble in contested situations all week in Mobile, which could be traced to his smaller hand size. Princeton fed him on crossers, where he wove through the defense and then turned on the jets to daylight. NFL teams should look to do the same against zone coverage and get him involved on jet sweeps.
He is a talented rookie wide receiver drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft and now finds himself tied to Patrick Mahomes. Where have I heard this before? Oh, that's right. Skyy Moore stole my heart last year, only to be limited weekly by Andy Reid. Just because I (and many others) were burned last year doesn't mean I'm shying away from Rice. That worry and recency bias will keep many from pressing the button when on the clock in fantasy drafts. His risk will likely be baked into his ADP, so the worries should be factored in. Rice is a zone coverage destroyer who could take over for Chief Juju Smith-Schuster's role in this offense. He has experience playing both the perimeter and slot extensively. Last year he ranked first in PFF receiving grade against zone and third in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum 20 zone targets per PFF). Rice produced a 64th percentile college dominator and 96th percentile collegiate target share at SMU. If Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore aren't up to operating as Mahomes' number two target, don't rule out Rice to seize the opportunity.
Ok. Deep breath. Here's the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers' WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn't be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn't supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
Flowers should immediately be starting in three wide receiver sets in Baltimore opposite Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. in the Ravens' new-look passing attack under Todd Monken. With Greg Roman gone, Baltimore should usher in a new era of football with Lamar Jackson's arm doing the talking. The drastic changes incoming for the Ravens could open some eyes. The first could be the offensive pace and play volume, which means more passing attempts and targets for these receiving options. In three of Monken's last four seasons as an offensive mastermind, he's ranked inside the top 12 (eighth, 11th, fourth) in neutral script pace. Over that span, he was also top-five in passing attempts twice. If Beckham doesn't look like his old self and Bateman doesn't fully bounce back from last season's foot injury woes, Flowers could be the number two target in this aerial attack. Flowers can play inside and the perimeter as a receiver that can win at every level of the field. Flowers is a WR4 that can handily outplay his ADP if things break his way.
Wicks is a burner and a field stretcher. In 2021, Wicks ranked sixth among all FBS wide receivers in deep targets (37.6% of his target volume), 14th in deep receiving yards, and 24th in deep passer rating when targeted (minimum 15 deep targets, 124.7). He has immediate lightning-fast acceleration off the line. He consistently stacks corners downfield with speed releases. Wicks does exhibit some body-catching. His ball-tracking downfield has been stellar, though. Drops are his big issue, as they cropped up heavily in 2022. He dropped 23.1% of his targets which was the highest among FBS wide receivers with at least 50 targets.
Chandler Jones finalizing deal with RaidersPer Tom Pelissero, linebacker Chandler Jones is finalizing a deal for around $17 million a year with the Raiders.Fantasy ImpactThe two-time All-Pro pass rusher will now be paired up with Maxx Crosby on a Raiders defense that just lost Yannick Ngakoue via trade. At 32-year-old, Jones is still a difference maker recording 10.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, 12 tackles for loss, and 26 QB hits last season for the Cardinals. AFC West quarterbacks have much to fear with Khalil Mack and Chandler Jones joining their division.
Per Tom Pelissero, linebacker Chandler Jones is finalizing a deal for around $17 million a year with the Raiders.
Fantasy Impact
The two-time All-Pro pass rusher will now be paired up with Maxx Crosby on a Raiders defense that just lost Yannick Ngakoue via trade. At 32-year-old, Jones is still a difference maker recording 10.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, 12 tackles for loss, and 26 QB hits last season for the Cardinals. AFC West quarterbacks have much to fear with Khalil Mack and Chandler Jones joining their division.