-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Arguably the best pure passer to ever play in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes enters his age-28 season at the height of his powers. Mahomes led all players in fantasy scoring last season with 428.4 points, giving him his second QB1 finish. In his five full seasons as a starter, Mahomes has averaged 303 passing yards and 23.95 fantasy points per game. Playing his first season without WR Tyreek Hill, who left for Miami, Mahomes finished the 2022 season with a career-high 5,250 passing yards and a league-high 41 TD passes. Mahomes is the safest bet you can make at quarterback.
Allen is worth drafting as early as Round 2 in one-quarterback leagues as one of the best Fantasy quarterbacks. In Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, Allen should be drafted in Round 1. In 2022, Allen's 29.1 Fantasy points per game marked his third season in a row averaging at least 27.8. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid joins Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox as weapons for Allen, who is a candidate for 4,500 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. There is some concern Allen could run less in 2023 after consecutive seasons of at least 122 carries, 762 yards and six touchdowns. But even if the rushing numbers decline, they won't disappear, which still gives Allen a significant edge over his competition. Fantasy managers will have to decide which of Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts they like best, and Allen could definitely finish as the No. 1 QB in all leagues. He was No. 1 in 2021 and No. 2 in 2022 and 2020.
Drafters might get a slight discount on Lamar Jackson this year after a second consecutive season in which injuries limited him to 12 games. In 2021, it was bone bruise in his ankle that prematurely ended Jackson's season. In 2022, it was a sprained PCL in his knee. Jackson has been a lethal running threat throughout his career, averaging 63.4 rushing yards per game over his five NFL seasons. Jackson will be playing for new, pass-friendlier offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Ravens parted ways with Greg Roman. Even with the uncertainty and the recent injuries, Jackson is still an upper-echelon fantasy quarterback capable of a QB1 finish.
Brimming with swag and surrounded by ample pass-catching weaponry, Joe Burrow has firmly established himself as a premium fantasy quarterback. Burrow finished QB4 in fantasy scoring last season after throwing a career-high 35 TD passes. Over the last two years, Burrow has completed 69.3% of his throws, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He added some value with his legs in 2022, running for five touchdowns. Burrow gets to throw to the fabulous WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Bengals have made significant investments in their offensive line. Burrow will be a consensus top-five QB in 2023 fantasy drafts.
Justin Herbert has abundant arm talent and the mobility to add rushing value, so fantasy managers were expecting him to take another step forward last season in his third year as a starter. Instead, Herbert took a step backward, with significant declines in his yardage per game, yardage per attempt and touchdown rate. He ran for only 147 yards and didn't have a single TD run. In Herbert's defense, he gutted it out through a rib cartilage fracture sustained in an early-season Thursday-night game vs. the Chiefs, and Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both missed time with injuries. The Chargers have jettisoned oft-criticized offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, replacing him with Kellen Moore. Herbert remains one of the toolsiest quarterbacks in the league and will likely produce much-improved fantasy numbers in 2023.
Hurts gave us a taste of his fantasy potential in 2021 and then cooked a seven-course meal in 2022, improving his passing numbers across the board, providing enormous rushing value and leading all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game. Hurts was a highly efficient passer in his second full season as a starter, completing 66.5% of his throws at 8.0 yards per attempt, with a miniscule 1.3% INT rate. But it's the running game where Hurts really makes his bones. He ran for 13 touchdowns last year and has 23 TD runs over the last two seasons. Hurts has topped 750 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, averaging 51.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football and can throw to three terrific targets: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts belongs on the top QB tier along with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.