-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022, was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison's chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed. The 25-year-old running back was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022. And although, he's never been a featured back for an entire season -- the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Dalvin Cook has been a hot trade candidate, suggesting his days at the Vikings RB1 could be numbered. The team can save close to $8 million if they release him.
Gibson is expected to be the No. 2 running back in Washington this season, and he will compete with Brian Robinson Jr. for playing time. Gibson is worth drafting with a mid-round pick, with his value higher in PPR, and he should see most of his production in the passing game. Robinson should lead the Commanders in carries, but Gibson should still get his share of touches. He had a career-best year in 2022 in targets (58), receptions (46) and receiving yards (353), and hopefully he can build off that in new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy's system. Gibson should be viewed as a flex option in PPR, and he could end up as a weekly starter if Robinson were to miss time. In non- and 0.5-PPR leagues, Gibson's value is lower coming into the season, but he's still a good back to stash on your bench.
Herbert is a breakout candidate based on his unique skill-set and possible (if not likely) lead role in the Bears run game. Statistically, Herbert was actually top 10 among qualified RBs in yards per carry, yards before and after contact per rush, explosive run rate and avoided tackle rate. The guy can move, and while he's not a dynamic pass catcher or physical bowling ball, he is very capable of making the most out of limited touches. In eight career games with at least 12 carries, he's had at least 10 PPR points six times and 15-plus five times. He'll be helped greatly by sharing touches with quarterback Justin Fields (it'll drive defenses crazy), plus the Bears offensive line may finally be a strength. Herbert is a Round 7 or 8 value pick since he has potential for plenty of yardage and a handful of touchdowns.
With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals' offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams' workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
Bigsby was only on the field for a handful of snaps as D'Ernest Johnson has taken over as the No. 2 RB in Jacksonville. Bigsby is only worth rostering in dynasty leagues heading into a Week 14 matchup against the Browns.
An almost perfect landing spot for rookie Eric Gray, who has a shot at winning the RB2 job behind Saquon Barkley. Of course, Barkley and the New York Giants are still at odds regarding contract negotiations. Barkley wants (and deserves) a long-term deal. The Giants want (and deserve) to take a cautious approach with their often-injured star running back. It’s not farfetched to envision Gray playing a 1B role alongside Barkley, with a chance to earn some spot starts.
The Saints clearly targeted Miller and it was easy to see why if you watched the Cinderella story that was the TCU Horned Frogs in 2022. Miller was the lifeblood of that offense and his absence was felt when he had to miss time. Miller has a complete three-down profile and could evolve into one of the better receiving options at the RB position. He also forces missed tackles and creates yards after contact at rates that are wise to bet on. Miller makes for a high-upside dart throw in the Round 14 range, but his value will also be drastically altered by any Alvin Kamara suspension. Kendre Miller is a nice target in the second round of your rookie-only drafts.
Charbonnet often played around 50 percent of the offensive snaps in a game, but second-year back Kenneth Walker was the clear lead back with 248 touches, 1,164 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns. Despite the lopsided workload, Charbonnet showed promise as a rookie, especially as a pass-catcher. Moreover, his 4.3 YPC with one touchdown on 108 carries compares well to Walker's 4.1 YPC on 218 carries, and it's almost certain that Charbonnet could hold up to an increased workload given his size and ability to do so in college. Still, Charbonnet likely won't see such a workload as long as Walker is in the fold, so he projects as a late-round fantasy pick again in 2024.
James Conner has dealt with durability concerns throughout his career and is now 28 years old. The Arizona Cardinals have one of the league’s thinnest backfields and are tied for the league’s worst odds of winning the Super Bowl. In other words, at some point this season, Arizona will probably be incentivized (or forced) to see what they have in former sixth-rounder Keaontay Ingram. And while Ingram might not be the next Eno Benjamin, he could be a back-end fantasy starter later this year.
Harris signed as a free agent with Buffalo, where he's expected to compete with James Cook and Latavius Murray for touches. Harris could emerge as the best running back for the Bills, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 7 in PPR leagues and Round 6 in non- and 0.5-PPR formats. Harris spent the first four years of his career with the Patriots, and he broke out in 2021 when he scored 15 touchdowns. Harris scored three touchdowns in his first four games in 2022 but then struggled with injuries and was outplayed by Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris could lead the Bills in carries and potentially rushing touchdowns, but he isn't expected to be a factor in the passing game with 40 career receptions. Josh Allen will be a factor on the ground in Buffalo along with Harris' running back competition. Consider Harris a No. 3 running back/flex option to open the season, and if he stays healthy he could outperform his draft value, especially if he's better than Cook and Murray.