-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Don't be fooled by the final numbers that were dragged down by the Sam Ehlinger games -- Pierce is a vertical threat. He topped 20 yards per reception (PPR) four times from Weeks 3-9 as a rookie. Pierce finished as a WR2 or better (PPR) just twice in 2022, but rookie QB Anthony Richardson is a vertically-oriented thrower and that fits Pierce's skill set as a size/speed weapon who dominated on the vertical plane at the collegiate level. Pierce is coming off the board in Round 14 and he makes for an excellent late-round sleeper target with an upgraded offensive system and a quarterback who fits what he does best.
From Day 1, Garrett Wilson was my favorite rookie WR from the 2022 class. The dude could get open at will and check off all the boxes as an early declare being selected inside the top 10. And he did not disappoint. The former Buckeye commanded a 53% target share in Week 18 to close out a rookie season with a 25% target share, 86% route participation and 146 targets (top-10), despite not being a full-time player until Week 8. WR22 overall and WR20 in expected points per game. Entering 2023, Wilson will have a major upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers under center. Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Top-10 fantasy WR numbers. If Rodgers can just be accurate throwing the ball (seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60% of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6% of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3%). Wilson is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs.
Treylon Burks dealt with numerous injuries throughout his rookie campaign but showed flashes of WR1 ability from Week 10 onward. In his final six healthy games played, Burks led the Titans in targets and receiving yards. He earned 6-plus targets in all but two games and eclipsed 66-plus receiving yards in half the contests. In the 3 games started with Ryan Tannehill Weeks 10-12, Burks was very productive. Team-high 21% target share, 11.5 PPR points per game and 2.56 yards per route run. With the 2022 TEN leaders in overall targets and red-zone target - Robert Woods, Austin Hopper - gone from the roster, Burks should see ample opportunities in his second year for volume and TDs.
Shakir should be the No. 3 receiver for the Bills this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's headed for a lot of production. He's not worth drafting in the majority of leagues. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are locked into the top two receiver spots for Buffalo, but then Dawson Knox and especially Dalton Kincaid could see more targets ahead of Shakir. Shakir might be able to carve out a role for himself in his second season, but he'll have to prove himself first to Fantasy managers. As a rookie in 2022, Shakir had 10 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets. If he starts out the season playing well, then just add Shakir off the waiver wire.
When you watched Philips at UCLA, you could see glimpses of what has made Cooper Kupp and Amon-Ra St. Brown so successful at the NFL level in the slot - strength, quickness, spatial awareness and route savvy. He showed flashes of that by racking up nine targets and six receptions in his first career NFL game. Injuries to Philips and his quarterback stymied the rest of his rookie season, but Philips could end up a sneaky waiver-wire add early in the season in PPR leagues considering the lack of target competition around him.
Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers' clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Watson is a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.
Chris Olave ended his strong rookie season 8th in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25% target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38%). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), 6th in yards per route run (2.42) and 8th in target rate per route run (28%). One of the most efficient seasons we have ever seen from a rookie WR. His downfield skill set and per-route efficiency will gel extremely well with his new quarterback, Derek Carr, in 2023. Olave is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs.
Drake London excelled in his rookie season, although fantasy gamers were not elated with his WR43 finish. If we look deeper than the raw counting stats, London's future is incredibly bright. If earning targets is a skill (it is), then London proved to be among the league's elite. He ranked 22nd in raw target volume last year (117) with the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) and second-highest target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. London also blazed in efficiency stats ranking 16th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), tenth in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). London gave a glimpse into his 2023 upside down the stretch last season. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. London is a target vacuuming WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
Doubs was in Aaron Rodgers circle of trust early on in 2022, something that is extremely hard for rookies to accomplish. But after sustaining an injury and the rise of Christian Watson, Doubs faded as the season wound to a close. However, going into 2023, while Watson is the presumed WR1 of the Packers, the No.2 spot is Doubs to lose. Fantasy managers would do well to keep an eye out for him this off-season as a potential sleeper.
Dotson's overall rookie season numbers don't jump off the page. He was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). All of these figures paint an inaccurate picture of his true upside. After he returned from injury, the season's final five games offered a clearer view of what a breakout sophomore season for Dotson could look like. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at the helm in 2023 doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Dotson is a skilled wide receiver well-versed from his college days in dealing with pitiful quarterback play. Dotson is a WR4/5 that could take a huge leap in his second season. I won't rule out him giving Terry McLaurin a run for his money for the team lead in targets this season. Investing in talented second-year wide receivers are strong bets to make.
Rashid Shaheed quietly had one of the most impressive rookie seasons of 2023. While his 488 receiving yards and two scores won't perk up many eyebrows, I love Shaheed in 2023 in all formats. After earning at least a 60% route per dropback rate last year, Shaheed was an impact player with three top 36 wide receiver weeks over his final seven games. In 2022, Shaheed ranked fourth in yards per route run and 22nd in PFF receiving grade (minimum 30 targets per PFF). Those numbers jump off the page. If Michael Thomas can't make it back on the field at this point in his career, Shaheed could finish second on the Saints in targets in 2023.
Deven Thompkins looks ‘explosive,' per head coachTampa Bay Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Deven Thompkins was described by head coach Todd Bowles as quick, fast, and explosive off the ball. He has also "made some good catches," prompting Bowles to want to watch Thompkins continue to learn and perform in camp. Fantasy ImpactThompkins went undrafted in April, but it wasn't for lack of effort. The Utah State product racked up a whopping 1,704 yards and 10 touchdowns as a senior before posting a 4.35 40-yard dash time. Still, Thompkins' ceiling as a rookie is likely the No. 4 wide receiver role, and even then he'll have to compete with Breshad Perriman, Cyril Grayson, Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden, Scott Miller, and others this summer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Deven Thompkins was described by head coach Todd Bowles as quick, fast, and explosive off the ball. He has also "made some good catches," prompting Bowles to want to watch Thompkins continue to learn and perform in camp.
Fantasy Impact
Thompkins went undrafted in April, but it wasn't for lack of effort. The Utah State product racked up a whopping 1,704 yards and 10 touchdowns as a senior before posting a 4.35 40-yard dash time. Still, Thompkins' ceiling as a rookie is likely the No. 4 wide receiver role, and even then he'll have to compete with Breshad Perriman, Cyril Grayson, Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden, Scott Miller, and others this summer.
My Skyy Moore love fell on its face last year as Andy Reid stuck him in a limited role for the 2022 season. Moore didn't log a single game in the regular season with 50% or higher snaps. While consensus would love the label Moore as a terrible player, that isn't true. Last year among 115 wide receivers with at least 30 targets (per PFF), Moore ranked 50th in receiving grade, 49th in yards per route run, and sixth in YAC per reception. Outside of his YAC numbers, I understand that the other metrics aren't eye-popping, but they are nowhere near wretched. With increased playing time in his second season, Moore can still capture the high-end ceiling I hoped for last year tied to Patrick Mahomes. Take him late in drafts as a stash, and hold on your bench. If Moore hits this year, he could be one of the best values in fantasy.
Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack.
Washington finished his rookie campaign with minimal production despite playing in all but two games. The 23-year-old wideout saw limited playing time throughout the season as he remained buried on the depth chart. Heading into the 2023 season, Washington will look to make an impression on Denver's new coaching staff. However, the 5-foot-10, 170-pound receiver will likely face another uphill battle for playing time with fellow wideouts Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick (knee) and KJ Hamler (hamstring) all under contract for next season. As Washington continues to develop, he will likely operate in a depth role going forward.