-2024 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
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Ask the Commish.Com 2024 Draft Kit
David Njoku was superb in 2023, his seventh NFL season, establishing new single-season highs in receptions (81), receiving yards (882) and touchdowns (6). But Njoku was far more productive with Joe Flacco at quarterback than he was with Deshaun Watson and other QBs. In the six games he played with Flacco (including the playoffs), Njoku averaged 6.2 receptions and 80.5 receiving yards per game, and he had four TD catches. In 11 games with QBs other than Flacco, Njoku averaged 4.6 receptions and 44.7 receiving yards per game, and he had two TD catches. In the five full games Watson played, Njoku averaged 4.0 catches and 35.2 receiving yards a game, with one TD catch. Njoku is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, and despite his ample NFL experience, he'll only be 28 when the new season begins. The question is whether Njoku can replicate the success he had with Flacco as his quarterback if the Browns, as expected, open the season with Watson as their starting QB.
By now, we have a pretty good handle on what sort of player Dallas Goedert is. He reliably puts up good reception and yardage totals, but he's not a prolific touchdown scorer, and he gets banged up quite a bit. Over his last five seasons, Goedert has averaged 4.1 catches and 48.6 receiving yards per game. But Goedert has never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season, and he's missed 14 games due to injury over the last four years. Goedert's efficiency numbers slipped in 2023. After averaging better than 10 yards per target in 2021 and 2022, he averaged 7.1 yards per target last season. he also averaged a career-low 10.0 yards per catch. Goedert's fantasy ceiling may be somewhat limited due to the presence of Eagles WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who give Philadelphia one of the best wide receiver combos in the league. Consider Goedert a low-end TE1 for 2024 fantasy drafts.
Knox has historically been TD-dependent is fantasy. Last season he scored just two touchdowns and was practically fantasy irrelevant. Dalton Kincaid was used significantly more in the passing game, and based on season-long stats, Kincaid will continue to outshine Knox in 2024. Knox's career TD rate of 12.8% is excellent. There's a chance he pops as a TD scorer in 2024 – just as he did in 2022 and 2021. But there's no predictable volume to chase here, especially with Kincaid's arrow pointing straight up. Only consider Knox late in FFPC (TE premium) drafts.
Hockenson underwent surgery late January and doesn't seem likely to be ready for Week 1. We recommend drafting Hockenson with a late-round pick in the majority of leagues, but he could be out in the early part of the year. Hockenson suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16 last year, and he didn't undergo surgery until late January. There's a good chance Hockenson could be on the PUP list or injured reserve to open the season, and we might not see him until after Minnesota's bye in Week 6. Now, he could surprise us and be ready for Week 1, but that seems unlikely. Hockenson is more appealing in leagues with IR spots where you can potentially stash him, but don't draft him based on his production from last year when he averaged 14.6 PPR points per game. Keep in mind the Vikings have a new quarterback this year in J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold, and it could take time for Hockenson to develop a rapport with his new passer. We're hopeful Hockenson can return to form quickly and perform at a high level, but your best bet is to consider him a No. 2 Fantasy tight end to open the season and not overvalue him based on what happened before his knee injury in 2023.
Dalton Schultz hasn't been able to recapture the glory of his 2021 season, when he had a career-high 808 yards and eight touchdowns to finish as the fantasy TE3, but he's been a decent fantasy performer over the last two years. Schultz had 57-577-5 in 2022 and 59-635-5 in 2023, finishing TE10 and TE11 in PPR fantasy scoring in those two seasons. Schultz re-signed with the Texans in the offseason, so he'll continue to play with impressive young QB C.J. Stroud. The problem is that Houston traded for WR Stefon Diggs in the offseason, so Schultz will likely be No. 4 in the target pecking order behind Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, limiting his top-end fantasy potential.
Ertz will reunite with OC Kliff Kingsbury from their days in Arizona. He figures to split snaps with Cole Turner to some extent after the Commanders released Logan Thomas. Ertz is nearing the end of an incredible career that at its peak featured WR1 type numbers (116 receptions for 1,163 yards and eight TDs in 2018). He played just seven games in 2023 before hitting injured reserve and eventually being released by the Cardinals, and he set career lows in targets, receptions and yardage as Trey McBride blossomed in the Cardinals offense. Ertz latched on with the Commanders in the offseason, and he'll battle for lead tight end duties while mentoring second-round pick Ben Sinnott. Ertz is not worth rostering in any format unless he can prove to be a key part of the Washington offense and that he can stay healthy.