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PRESCOTT, DAK - DAL
We're drafting Prescott as a top-eight quarterback no earlier than Round 6 in a one-quarterback league. He's a first-round pick in most Superflex leagues, and if he repeats what he did last year he'll be a value at cost once again. If you wanted to look for reasons Prescott won't repeat, you start with his 6.1% pass TD rate, which was about a point higher than his career average. However, he's been at 6% for three years now. The truth is, he has essentially been a top-five Fantasy quarterback since the start of 2020, except for 2022 which was marred by injury and some terrible turnover luck. Prescott is one of the best reasons not to draft a quarterback early because he should give you 90% of their production four rounds later. In Dynasty we'd feel better about Prescott if he signed a long-term deal. For now, view him as a high-end QB2 who is more valuable than that to contenders.
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Tagovailoa, Tua - MIA
Tagovailoa is a borderline QB1 worthy of a pick as early as Round 9. The Dolphins QB has shown flashes of the upside we believe exists in him, but never for a full season. Last year he was QB4 through the first eight weeks of the season and QB10 through Week 13. From that point forward he had just one game with more than 240 yards passing and just one game with multiple touchdown passes. That type of letdown in the Fantasy playoffs will surely cause some Fantasy managers to shy away, but he did finish with a league-best 4,624 passing yards and a second year in a row of about eight yards per attempt. With Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all still in Miami, there is plenty of reason to hope that Tagovailoa maintains his breakout for a full season in 2024.
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Lawrence, Trevor - JAC
Lawrence was a colossal disappointment in Fantasy leagues in 2023 and never made the leap into the consistent QB1 range. The addition of Calvin Ridley wasn't enough to help Lawrence take the jump and he instead finished with just the 16th-most Fantasy points per game. The good news is that you can now get Lawrence at a massive discount as he is coming off the board in the QB2 range. The Jaguars have since upgraded the offensive line around him, added Gabe Davis in free agency, and used their first-round draft pick on WR Brian Thomas. Lawrence is one of the highest-upside QB2s you can grab in drafts and an excellent option for those drafters who like to wait at QB.
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Minshew, Gardner - KC
Minshew has been named the Raiders starting quarterback to begin the 2024 season. Minshew fit in well with the Colts in 2023 and settled in as a QB2 in Fantasy. While he had spike weeks (QB2 and QB6 finishes), he also struggled to finish weeks inside the top 12 at QB in all but three of his games. Minshew joins a Raiders group with talented pass catchers in Davante Adams, Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, but what should also be a run-first offense under coach Antonio Pierce. Minshew is a back-end QB2 without long-term certainty as a starting option, so don't get too attached to him in SuperFlex leagues. He is not worth rostering in one-QB leagues.
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Richardson Sr., Anthony - IND
A back issue sidelined Richardson for the final two games of the 2024 regular season, but the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft has moved past the injury, which puts him in a position to compete with free agent addition Daniel Jones for the Colts' No. 1 QB job. Per Joel A. Erickson of the Indianapolis Star, coach Shane Steichen previously noted that Richardson and Jones will split first-team reps in practices and into training camp, with Steichen indicating that "really, it's going to come down to who's the most consistent, who's the most productive," in terms of who will emerge as the team's starter.
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Haener, Jake - NO
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Buechele, Shane - BUF
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Williams, Caleb - CHI
Back in January, Courtney Cronin of ESPN reported that Williams was spotted with a cast on his right wrist while attending a USC-Wisconsin men's basketball game after undergoing a minor offseason elective procedure to remove a cyst. Since then, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has moved past the issue and appears to be practicing without limitations. As a rookie, Williams threw for 3,541 yards, with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions in 17 games, to go along with 81 carries for 489 yards. In his second season as a pro, it's reasonable to expect improvements from the USC product, with a new offensive-minded head coach at the helm, as well as a re-tooled offensive line on hand and a pair of promising young playmakers (TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden) having been added to the mix via the draft.
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Watson, Deshaun - TBD
Watson is expected to return in time for training camp after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 10 last year. As long as Watson is ready for Week 1, he should be considered a high-end No. 2 Fantasy quarterback worth drafting with a late-round pick in all one-quarterback leagues. In Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, Watson is worth a mid-round selection. In 2023, Watson appeared in six games, and he scored at least 22.6 Fantasy points in three of them. When healthy, he still has the potential to be among the best Fantasy quarterbacks, but no one is going to draft him as a No. 1 option. The good news for Watson is the Browns added Jerry Jeudy this offseason to an already quality receiving corps with Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku. And Watson can still be a decent rusher with at least 22 rushing yards in four of six games in 2023. If Watson can stay healthy all season, he could emerge as a potential starter in all leagues, and he's a cheap investment this year with a late-round pick in one-quarterback formats.
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