-2025 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2025 Draft Kit
Evan Engram could SMASH his ADP this year as Sean Payton's Joker. Everyone will point to last year as a reason to have worries about Engram, who ranked 20th in yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021. In Engram's two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and second and 12th in target share (per Fantasy Points Data). Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric. Engram's best competition for targets is Courtland Sutton. Engram could lead Denver in targets this season. If that happens, he'll likely be knocking on the door of the top 3-5 tight ends in 2025.
His first seven NFL seasons were unremarkable, but Jonnu Smith authored a stunning fantasy breakout in Year 8, establishing career highs in targets (111), catches (88), receiving yards (884) and touchdowns (8). Smith finished TE4 in overall PPR fantasy scoring and TE5 in fantasy points per game. Smith went nuclear late in the season, averaging 6.9 catches and 67.1 yards per game from Week 11 on. He scored seven TDs in those eight games and was TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring over that stretch, averaging 18.6 points per game. Smith's 2024 usage surge seemed to be at least partly the product of an emphasis on the short passing game following QB Tua Tagovailoa's return from a concussion. Tagovailoa averaged a career-low 5.7 intended air yards per pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Smith, whose average depth of target last year was 4.9 yards, was a favorite target of Tagovailoa on shorter throws. On the heels of a career-best year, Smith seems like a regression candidate entering his age-30 season and could be overdrafted in 2025. He will see Pat Friermuth as a threat to some of his playing time and the Steelers are expected to be less pass happy than the Dolphins.