-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Houston Texans, presumably to fill the role of Dameon Pierce's primary backup. Singletary operated as the 1A in the Buffalo Bills backfield for the majority of the 2022 season finishing the year as RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, unlike the last two seasons that ended with strong finishes for the undersized rusher, Singletary was in a full-blown committee with rookie James Cook to close out the year. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game, 52% snap share). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality, capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2.
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine - 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed - after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans). With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals' offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams' workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
Michael Burton signs with Denver Michael Burton and the Broncos have agreed to a one-year contract. Fantasy ImpactBurton will reunite with his former head coach in New Orleans, Sean Payton. In 2022 with Kansas City, Burton only logged seven touches in 17 games. The fullback will not carry any fantasy value in 2023.
Michael Burton and the Broncos have agreed to a one-year contract.
Fantasy Impact
Burton will reunite with his former head coach in New Orleans, Sean Payton. In 2022 with Kansas City, Burton only logged seven touches in 17 games. The fullback will not carry any fantasy value in 2023.
Foreman parlayed an impressive stretch with the Titans into an even more impressive 2022 season with the Panthers, and now he lands in Chicago, where he'll have legitimate competition for touches. The Bears bring back veteran Khalil Herbert, who was uber productive on a per-touch basis in 2022, and they drafted Roschon Johnson. If Foreman can earn the definitive short-yardage and red-zone role, in addition to the early down role, he would return certain value in standard scoring formats as a 12th-round pick.
Homer joined the Bears in the offseason. He is more likely to be a thorn in the other backs' side on passing downs than he is to make an actual Fantasy impact. You can leave him on the waiver wire to start the year.
David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions this offseason, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging just 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. And with the new addition of 12th overall draft pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything more than a fantasy RB2/RB3 with the highly coveted goal-line role likely his main path to appealing fantasy production. Keep in mind that last season, Jamaal Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line en route to an RB12 fantasy finish and a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will supplement solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' role from 2022 - 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game - and Montgomery's contract suggests the team will be featuring enough (likely as a rusher on early downs) to be fantasy viable alongside Gibbs.
Miles Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB) have all seen what Sanders can do, and that surely played a part in bringing him on as the team's 1-for-1 replacement for new Chicago Bears running back D'Onta Foreman. At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back on early downs, while Chuba Hubbard (RB62) and Raheem Blackshear split work on third downs. But I say at a minimum because those guys still have to prove themselves to the new coaching staff to earn substantial roles. Sanders has already proven his worth with these coaches before. And last year he showed everyone what he was capable of when he finished as the RB10 in half-point scoring overall/RB13 in points per game from Weeks 1-17. He ended the year averaging just south of five yards per carry and scored 13 rushing TDs after scoring zero in 2021. His carries inside the 10-yard line ranked inside the top five among all RBs. And when Sanders saw his best-receiving usage to date - 50 receptions for 509 yards as a rookie in 2019 - it was under Staley's tenure. With Sanders' uber-efficient rushing running behind an offensive line that finished 9th in adjusted line yards in 2022, Carolina is a great landing spot for him. His rushing alone should earn him production similar to what we saw from Foreman after the team traded away Christian McCaffrey. From Week 7 onward, Foreman sat as the RB21 in total points and RB22 in points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards (852). But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for over 110 yards in half of the last ten games, while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his others. His inconsistency was due to a lack of pass-game work causing him to be completely phased out of games that Carolina was out-matched in. But, I don't think that will necessarily be the case for Sanders. The former Eagle has the chance to be a full-blown workhorse with an expanded receiving role based on the four-year, $25 million ($13 million guaranteed) commitment from his new team.
How does a running back finish as the RB12 while catching only 12 passes? Touchdowns. That's exactly how the season played out for Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams. He took on the role as the Lions' goal-line back, carrying the ball a league-high 41 times inside the 10-yard line for 13 rushing TDs. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs - not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. Touchdown regression pundits will shout to the heavens that Williams cannot duplicate his 2022 success and his new landing spot in New Orleans confirms this. He signed for 3 years, $12 million, $8 million guaranteed but will now compete for red-zone touches with both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. Kamara totaled just eight carries inside the 10-yard line last season with Hill chipping in 12. But a potential Kamara suspension would dramatically boost Williams' fantasy value as the Saints offense has never shied away from featuring the likes of Latavius Murray or Mark Ingram when AK41 has missed time in the past.
Edmonds struggled to find the field in 2022 with both Miami and Denver, but Edmonds had flex value in fantasy as a backup RB in Arizona before that. Edmonds has a similar skill set to current RB Rachaad White, but Edmonds signed for roughly $1 million, likely indicating his status as the backup RB.
The Eagles get D’Andre Swift and 7th round pick (No. 249), while the Lions received a fourth-round pick in 2025, and seventh-round pick (No. 219). In short, the Lions basically dumped Swift for a fourth round draft pick. The writing was on the wall when Detroit drafted Jahmyr Gibbs and this is great news for both of them. Swift won't be the bell cow in Philadelphia and is destined to have a lot of rushing scores siphoned off by Jalen Hurts but he should start over Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell and be a massive threat catches passes out of the backfield. Swift is likely back into the top 15 conversation after the trade. Just keep in mind he's on the last year of his contract and there's no guarantee he stays with the Eagles long-term.
Boone joined the Texans in the offseason. He should slot in as their RB3 behind Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. He should be left on the waiver wire unless there's at least one injury in front of him.
Penny and D'Andre Swift both joined the Eagles this offseason. With Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott already on the roster, this looks like a crowded room. We're valuing Penny like a bench back who should be drafted in the Round 9 range, but once the season starts, his weekly upside is through the roof. While Penny has only played 18 games over the last three seasons, he's been amazing when healthy. He has five games with more than 130 rushing yards in his last 10 appearances. Behind the Eagles offensive line, he may not need more than 8-12 touches to crack that mark. His injury history combined with his big-play ability makes him a better fit in Best Ball, but if Swift gets hurt first, Penny will be a top-20 back for as long as he stays healthy.
The Kansas City Chiefs signed running back Ronald Jones to a one-year deal to help bolster their running back room behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The former Buccaneer took a major step backward in 2021, being regulated to strict backup duties after losing out on the starting gig in Tampa Bay to Leonard Fournette. And even when loaded to take on the bell-cow role with Fournette sidelined during the end of the season, RoJo failed to fire. He earned 20 carries in Week 16 versus the Panthers but totaled just 65 yards. The plodding runner also finished 51st out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.5). Jones is a one-dimensional grinder back, whose fantasy value will be super reliant on carry-volume, offensive line play, and overall offensive efficiency. That in itself means he will have fantasy appeal as a late-round running back in redraft if he can carve out a role on early-down and/or at the goal-line in a high-powered Chiefs offense.
Harris signed as a free agent with Buffalo, where he's expected to compete with James Cook and Latavius Murray for touches. Harris could emerge as the best running back for the Bills, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 7 in PPR leagues and Round 6 in non- and 0.5-PPR formats. Harris spent the first four years of his career with the Patriots, and he broke out in 2021 when he scored 15 touchdowns. Harris scored three touchdowns in his first four games in 2022 but then struggled with injuries and was outplayed by Rhamondre Stevenson. Harris could lead the Bills in carries and potentially rushing touchdowns, but he isn't expected to be a factor in the passing game with 40 career receptions. Josh Allen will be a factor on the ground in Buffalo along with Harris' running back competition. Consider Harris a No. 3 running back/flex option to open the season, and if he stays healthy he could outperform his draft value, especially if he's better than Cook and Murray.
Benjamin saw his first action on offense since signing with the Saints in mid-December, handling a depth role behind Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill with those two accounting for 30 of the team's 35 rushing attempts. Benjamin's three touches did outpace fellow backup David Johnson's zero. Both Benjamin and Johnson should once again see extremely limited workloads in Week 18 unless the Saints choose to rest starters after they were officially eliminated from playoff contention Sunday.