-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Smith-Schuster had a solid season last year in one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it wasn't amazing, no matter how you slice it. The great Juju Smith-Schuster revival in Kansas City didn't come to fruition as many hoped. He was the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.4% target share (46th) and 16.9% air yard share (70th). Smith-Schuster's ability to beat zone coverage is his calling card these days, so he should help New England's passing offense in this aspect. He should be the "new Jakobi Meyers" as a starter in two wide sets that flexes to the slot when they utilize 11 personnel. Smith-Schuster is an uninspiring WR4/5. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots' roster is a steaming pile of stink on offense.
Josh McDaniels took another step today in making the Raiders "Patriots west" as they inked Jakobi Meyers to a three-year deal. This is a welcome addition to a Raiders' wide receiver room that was looking thin outside of Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow (Mack Hollins is a FA). The dominoes might not be done falling, though, as this could also signal a Renfrow departure. Renfrow can be cut, and the Raiders can save 1.5 million against the cap. The likeliest outcome is that Renfrow remains in Vegas this year and is cut bait next year when the team can save 8.2 million against the cap next year by kicking him to the curb. The Raiders are surrounding their new starting quarterback with underneath weapons. Meyers will rotate slot work with Renfrow. Meyers played 69.5% from the slot last year (Renfrow 86.0%), drawing a 22.0% target share (29th), a 25.8% target per route run rate (22nd), and a 27.4% air yard share as the Patriots' number one option. He was 29th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Meyers has been the WR29 and WR35 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Meyers' signing could signal the Raiders' plan to deploy more 11 personnel this season after ranking 18th in the use of three-plus wide receiver sets last year. Meyers will compete with Hunter Renfrow for second in line at the target water fountain. Meyers is a low-ceiling WR3/4 that gets a small boost in PPR formats.
Adam Thielen signs three-year deal with PanthersThe Carolina Panthers are signing veteran WR Adam Thielen to a three-year contract, according to Pat McAfee.Fantasy ImpactThielen, a Minnesota native, was released by the Vikings, setting him up to join the second team of his career. After nine years, Thielen will join a Carolina team that’s been adding new names to the offense to prepare whoever they likely draft at No. 1. Thielen has 534 catches and 55 touchdowns in his career and can be a veteran figure for the young Panthers.
The Carolina Panthers are signing veteran WR Adam Thielen to a three-year contract, according to Pat McAfee.
Fantasy Impact
Thielen, a Minnesota native, was released by the Vikings, setting him up to join the second team of his career. After nine years, Thielen will join a Carolina team that’s been adding new names to the offense to prepare whoever they likely draft at No. 1. Thielen has 534 catches and 55 touchdowns in his career and can be a veteran figure for the young Panthers.
Moore failed to live up to his Fantasy hype in 2022 and even finished outside the WR2 range (WR33 overall) while dealing with arguably the worst quarterback play of his career. You can look no further than Moore's catchable target rate (90th-best) to know what kind of quarterback play he dealt with last season from Baker Mayfield to Sam Darnold. However, there is no certainty he'll get a major upgrade with Justin Fields. It remains to be seen whether Fields can take a big jump as a passer, and these two will have to build rapport from scratch. Even then, Chicago figures to be a run-first offense. It will be very important to monitor how fast Fields and Moore get on the same page in camp. If they can develop chemistry early, Moore could emerge as a high-end WR2 and pay off in Rounds 4-5.
Berrios was cut by the New York Jets and now signs with the Dolphins, the third AFC East team of his career. Berrios was an All-Pro returner in 2021 and has 1,245 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns in four seasons with the Jets. He'll provide receiving depth and a gadget option in Miami.
Allen Lazard turned in a solid fantasy season in 2022, but if you were banking on him blowing the roof off, you were likely disappointed. Lazard was the WR34 in fantasy points per game, securing a 21.1% target share (33rd) and the 12th-most red zone targets among wideouts. Lazard could post similar numbers in New York with his immediate chemistry with Aaron Rodgers playing a factor. Just keep your expectations in check as a player that ranked outside the top 80 wide receivers in route win rate and win rate against man coverage has a hard ceiling for his fantasy outlook, even in the rosiest circumstances.
Agholor will join a Ravens’ team that is desperate need of playmakers downfield. The 29-year-old registered 362 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 31 receptions last season with the Patriots.
Last year Cooks saw his fantasy value crater as Pep Hamilton tried to pigeonhole him into a low aDOT role early on, which crushed his productivity. After Week 8, Hamilton returned to his senses and transitioned Cooks to his field-stretching role. Once the switch was made, his yards per route run jumped from 1.39 to 1.86. His aDOT climbed from 8.6 to 15.3 during this time. Cooks might not be a young pup anymore, but his top-25 rankings in route win rate and win rate against man coverage last year dispel any notion that he's turned to dust. With Dalton Schultz gone and Michael Gallup being JAG, Cooks should return WR3/4 value with room for more if he gels quickly with Dak Prescott. Another 1,000 season with a new team is possible for Cooks in 2023.
Pascal will reunite with new Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon in Arizona. He is more of a depth wide receiver for the Cardinals. He won't hold too much fantasy value.
Woods will remain in the AFC South after being released by the Titans. Woods registered 527 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 53 receptions in 17 games last season. The Texans have added a veteran wide receiver that should help an incoming rookie quarterback.
Brown registered 555 yards and three touchdowns on 43 receptions with the Cowboys last season. The 27-year-old will hold little fantasy value in a rebuilding offense.
Sherfield posted career-highs in catches (30), yards (417) and touchdowns (2) last season with the Dolphins. He is capable of moving all over the line in the slot and out wide. If he enters the season as the Bills No. 3 wide receiver, he could offer some fantasy value in deeper leagues.
The former second-round pick has played for the Colts for four seasons, posting career-high marks in 2022 of 63 catches, 623 yards and three receiving touchdowns. Campbell will provide the newly paid QB Daniel Jones with another weapon as the Giants aim to maximize their window early in his contract.
McKenzie accrued a career-high 478 yards and five touchdowns in 2022 with 51 touches. The 27-year-old playmaker saw an increased role in the Bills’ offense but was released. In Indianapolis, McKenzie can bring dynamic value as a slot receiver, a gadget guy or as a return man but likely won’t operate any higher than as the team’s WR3 behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.
After a promising start to his career in his rookie season, Elijah Moore had a rocky and underwhelming 2022. In the nine games, Moore played at least 70% of the snaps; he only saw a 13.2% target share, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate. In that sample, he only mustered 1.00 yards per route run. Woof! Those are atrocious numbers for a ballyhooed second-year receiver touted as the next rocket ship to the moon type player. His quarterback play was abysmal, but some blame for his production woes also lies at his feet. The big question is will he be a full-time player in 2023? Cleveland ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage in 2022, so worries are warranted. Cleveland will likely roll with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones when they go two wide, so the Browns' bump in 11 usage has to happen for Moore to actualize a ceiling. He's a risky dice roll in the later rounds of drafts that could pay off, but a lot has to move in his favor for him to resume his rookie season career trajectory.
Isabella was believed to have signed with the Ravens' practice squad Wednesday, however, it was reported Saturday that no deal was reached. The move now appears to be official. In a corresponding move, the team cut fellow wide receiver Bailey Gaither from the practice squad. .
Conley, 30, has played for four different teams since being drafted in 2015, accumulating 2,853 career yards and 15 touchdowns. Conley met with the 49ers Friday before signing with them. He can provide depth at the receiver position as the 49ers look for a potential WR3 in their offense, though there's no guarantee he cracks into their rotation as he competes with Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud and Danny Gray.
The Raiders add even more talent to the receiving room, bringing in the speedster Dorsett. Dorsett has played for five teams in his seven seasons and adds a sixth with the Raiders. Dorsett had 257 yards and one score in 2022 with the Texans.
Cobb is reuniting with long-time QB Aaron Rodgers with the Jets. Although he believes he still has a lot left in the tank, he likely will slot in towards the bottom of the Jets’ depth chart to start the season. Cobb does not hold much fantasy value outside of best ball drafts.
Jones returns to the Lions, but it's hard to get excited about the 33-year-old's Fantasy prospects for the 2023 season. In addition to joining a run-first offense with a clear No. 1 target (Amon-Ra St. Brown), it's fair to question what Jones still has to offer from a Fantasy standpoint. Jones finished inside the top 24 WRs on a weekly basis just once in 2022. He is best left undrafted.
Goodwin provides the Cleveland Browns with more speed, something the team has needed in its rotation outside of its depth pieces like Jakeem Grant and Anthony Schwartz. Goodwin's departure likely means the Seahawks could be in the market for a new WR3, and the Browns have now added Elijah Moore and Goodwin to a newly buffed passing offense.
Robinson was traded from the Rams to the Steelers in the offseason and it's very difficult to see how that is going to stop the steep downward curve of Robinson's production. Before the 2021 season, Robinson had never delivered less than 1.33 yards per route run. In 2021 with Chicago, that number fell to 1.14 before cratering to 0.93 last year. Robinson has missed 12 games over the past two seasons and has been one of the least efficient wide receivers in the NFL when he was active. We understand if you want to take one more chance on Robinson regaining form, but we wouldn't do it before Round 15 in any format.
Carter adds another receiving weapon for the Raiders as they look to fill the target void left by the departure of Darren Waller. Carter caught 46 balls for 538 yards and scored three touchdowns in his lone season in Los Angeles. Carter, whose 11.7 punt return average trailed only New England's Marcus Jones (min. 29 returns), should also be able to take over those responsibilities in Las Vegas and save some wear and tear on Hunter Renfrow.
From Weeks 7 through 11, Byrd caught nine of 14 targets for 229 yards and two touchdowns, displaying major big-play ability. However, he saw two or fewer targets in his other nine appearances and was held without a catch in five of those games. The veteran wideout has played for five different teams in as many campaigns and will be a free agent again this offseason.
Just less than a month after being waived by Cincinnati, Thomas has found another opportunity with a division rival. With Tylan Wallace (hamstring) and Rashod Bateman (foot) both on the injured reserve list, it wouldn't be surprising to see the 28-year-old wideout Thomas be elevated as soon as Saturday's game versus Atlanta.
James had a breakout season in 2022, compiling career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. After spending three quiet years in San Fransisco, James shined for a Giants team lacking in receiver talent under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. He turned his career year into a chance to play with the defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs have a lot of talent on the roster, but several of their young pieces, notably Khadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, have yet to fully emerge in the offense. James could be buried on the depth chart to start the season but there is a chance for him to have sneaky fantasy value if the opportunity presents itself.
Hardman left the Chiefs this offseason to join Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. While he still gets to play with a great quarterback, he faces a bigger challenge when it comes to earning targets. The Jets already have Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis on the roster and they also added Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, who played with Rodgers last year. For the time being, project Hardman as a role player who can largely be ignored in Fantasy leagues. But if he earns a full-time slot role, that could change. The one place Hardman should definitely be drafted is in leagues that reward points for return yards, as he should return punts and kickoffs for the Jets.
Miller spent his first four seasons in Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers where he caught 74 passes for 924 yards and four touchdowns. Miller brings 4.39 speed to the Falcons who also brought in WR Mack Hollins in free agency. Atlanta is looking thin at WR heading into 2023, and Miller could see an increased role compared to his 24% of offensive snaps he saw in 2022.
Rodgers was given an opportunity due to a late-season injury to Nico Collins (foot) and likely played his way into the 2023 mix at wideout. Rodgers caught 12 of 17 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown over the final five games. The Texans will be hiring a new head coach and probably a new offensive coordinator, so personnel decisions are up in the air, but Rodgers has two years left on his contract. If the organization parts with Brandin Cooks, there could be a starting spot available for a wide receiver. The downside for fantasy speculators is this will be another rebuilding year in Houston with new coaches and a new quarterback.