-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Israel "Izzy" Abanikanda didn't do much at Pittsburgh during his first two years there, but he finally broke out in 2022 as the team's No. 1 running back. The 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns en route to a 39% dominator rating. Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF's 8th-highest rusher in his draft class. At Pitt's pro day, Abanikanda ran an unofficial 4.41 40-yard dash with some reports claiming he got under 4.3. He also jumped out of the building hitting 41 inches in the vertical (97th percentile) and 128 inches in the broad jump (95th percentile). His size/speed profile is extremely enticing.
Brown has good vision on zone runs and finding cut-back lanes. Brown does hesitate at the line when he should explode through the hole. He ran with more conviction as the 2022 season progressed. Brown is a runway back. He doesn't display the ability to make the first tackler miss in the hole, but once he's into the second level, he displays a good second gear and the ability to set up his blocks. Brown isn't blessed with overwhelming lateral agility. He gets himself in trouble when he hesitates at the line or tries to bounce some runs outside. Brown doesn't have the raw athleticism to get away with this. Brown displays soft hands in the passing game. He was mostly utilized as a check-down option or on the occasional rail route.
Cartavious "Tank" Bigsby has been a force for the Auburn Tigers since he first stepped on the school campus. He took over as the team's starting running back as a freshman in 2020, earning a 20% dominator rating. Bigsby would build off his hot start as a sophomore with a 25% dominator rating followed by a career-high 27% dominator rating his junior year. The 6-foot, 210-pound back finished 6th in yards after contact per attempt (4.16), 11th in forced missed tackles, 11th in PFF rushing grade and 7th in breakaway run rate among his 2023 draft-eligible RB peers. Although Bigsby is not overly athletic, based on his "meh" testing at the combine. 26th percentile vertical jump, 54th percentile broad jump and a 4.56 40-yard dash (47th percentile). Bigsby did improve on his 40-time at Auburn's pro day, running a 4.45. He was drafted by the Jaguars in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete for the No. 2 job behind Travis Etienne. Head coach Doug Pederson has spoken all offseason about building a deep RB room, so the Bigsby selection was not shocking.
Tyjae Spears boosted his draft stock dramatically as a buzzy player at the Senior Bowl, and his atomic rise up the draft boards continued at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Spears weighed in at 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds. He did not run the 40-yard dash but instead nearly jumped out of the building in the explosion drills. His vertical jump of 39? ranked in the 92nd percentile and was second only to Chase Brown. Spears' broad jump ranked third in the class at 125? which ranked in the 89th percentile. The Tulane running back will be one of my top rookie running back targets after he posted a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing 5th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing TDs (19), and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). Per Sports Info Solutions' total points model, Spears finished third in total points per game and total EPA generated per game. He also finished second in the class in pass pro snaps per game (8.1), something NFL coaches will drool over. Throughout his career, he boasts an impressive 3.00 yards per play (seventh best in the class) - a great indicator of future success at the NFL level. The Titans selected Spears in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft despite scary reports regarding Spears' short shelf life based on previous knee injuries. For 2023 alone, he's a high-upside handcuff option should anything happen to Derrick Henry.
Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%). At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. And the Detroit Lions hardly seem concerned about his size, considering they selected him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his somewhat smaller frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency. Last season ex-Lions and newly acquired Eagles running back D'Andre Swift was uber-efficient on a per-touch basis: fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift (10.3) and Jamaal Williams (16.1) combined for 26.4 touches per game. Even with a projected 50-50 split, Gibbs is looking at a 224-touch workload. With a 55% split, Gibbs is flirting with nearly 250 total touches over a 17-game season. Simply put, the former Alabama running back needs to be ranked as back-end RB1.
Texas running back Bijan Robinson was the consensus No. 1 RB across all pre-draft publications and was selected 8th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson finished the 2022 college football season as PFF's second highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Texas Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which has shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. Compared to last year's running back class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished third among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the locked-in 1.01 for rookie drafts and top-3-ranked running back in season-long formats. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a successful three-down running back in Arthur Smith's offense. Last season in Atlanta's offense, Tyler Allgeier finished as PFF's highest-graded rookie running back and 6th in rushing EPA as a former 5th-round pick. Allgeier also averaged nearly 18 carries and 96 rushing yards per game from Week 13 onward. If Robinson inherits that workload, he is easily projecting 300-plus carries and 1,500 rushing yards in an offense that ranked first in early down run rate and +13% in run rate above expectation.
Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet's numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet's 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved on his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall) pairing him with last year's second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet can't deliver the home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. Charbonnet's 3-down skill set combined with his draft capital suggests he will be used by the Seahawks plenty as a rookie, and he could end up being the better fantasy asset compared to Walker. Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team's leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet's closest comparisons based on his size and weight is Carson.
Luepke is one of the best, all-around prospects at the position in the past few years. He does a lot of things at a very high level. As a runner, he's got a good combination of patience, footwork, pad level and vision. In the passing game, he's an excellent downfield option. He reminds me a lot of former 49ers great Tom Rathman.
Former Oregon State fullback Jack Colletto is technically, well... a fullback because that's what he's listed as. However, if you were to hype up a player who could effectively do almost anything (and on both sides of the ball), Colletto would be it. He even spent time as a quarterback early in his collegiate career before transitioning to a periodic linebacker while also serving as a fullback. Over his five seasons with the Beavers, Colletto notched 50 tackles and an interception, threw three interceptions instead of throwing a touchdown, had a receiving touchdown on four catches and also rushed 111 times and managed 22 more touchdowns on the ground. Perhaps that's his calling card at the NFL level. And that's where he'll be, at least for now, as the Niners signed him as an undrafted free agent following the 2023 draft.