-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Murray finished the 2023 season on a high note with a pair of outings reminiscent of his pre-injury days under center in Arizona. The 27-year-old didn't look like the dual-threat fantasy stud he once was upon returning from ACL surgery in Week 10. If Murray can produce numbers close to his last three games this season (241.3 passing yards and 29.7 rushing yards per game along with a 6:1 TD:INT) in 2024, then we could see a bounce-back season in store for the two-sport athlete.
Love's upside in a Packers offense expected to be tailored to his strengths is what makes him a good prospect. But because he's been mostly unimpressive over 291 career snaps, he's not nearly as exciting to buy into as other non-top-12 QBs. Love has mostly dinked-and-dunked downfield over 83 career pass attempts with only two completions of 16-plus Air Yards on 14 tries. All three of his touchdowns were catch-and-run plays by his receivers, two of which were considerably long. His biggest strength? His mobility, where he's kept plays alive with his legs and averaged 5.5 yards per run when he wasn't kneeling down (six attempts). For what it's worth, his schedule is projected to be the easiest for any quarterback this season. Expect Love to be taken around the 21st QB off the board as an upside-based No. 2 option in Superflex/two-QB formats or as a quality backup in one-QB leagues.
Smith led a clutch game-winning drive within the two-minute warning to lead his team to victory and a 9-8 record in 2023. Last year's Comeback Player of the Year saw his numbers take a step back this season, completing 65 percent of his passes for 3,435 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 15 games. The only area the 32-year-old improved in was ball protection by committing three fewer turnovers compared to 2022. Despite Smith's slight regression, he figures to be under center for Seattle next season after signing a three-year contract extension this past offseason.
Goff is considered a modest breakout candidate by some, but there are some issues. For one thing, he's averaged more than 20 Fantasy points just three times over his seven-year career, and never more than 22.6 points per game. And while the Lions have added some pretty serious talent in the draft over the past two seasons, they've leaned away from being pass-heavy, especially inside the 10-yard line where they've passed on just 42.5% of their plays last year, seventh-fewest in the league. Goff doesn't run much and also doesn't take a lot of chances with the football. Take some caution with Goff, who should be picked after the likes of Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. If he's the 20th quarterback off the board in your league, he's a fair value.
Plagued by subpar QB play for years, the Broncos viewed Russell Wilson as a potential savior and gave up a bevy of draft capital to acquire him. Wilson's first year in Denver was bitterly disappointing, as he turned in the worst season of his 11-year career, with career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), passer rating (84.4) and touchdown passes (16), and a career high in sacks (55). Once a dangerous runner, Wilson doesn't run as much these days, and he doesn't escape pressure as easily. It's possible that this accomplished passer has a bounce-back season in 2023 under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but we can't assume that the 34-year-old Wilson will return to something close to vintage form. Approach with caution.
Sam Howell rode the bench for the first 16 games of his rookie year before the Commanders gave him a Week 18 start. Howell was functional if unspectacular, completing 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 26-6 win over Dallas. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera says Howell has a chance to open the 2023 season as Washington's starting quarterback. A fifth-round draft pick in 2022, Howell had strong freshman and sophomore seasons at the University of North Carolina before regressing somewhat in his third and final year. Howell doesn't have exceptional arm talent, but his above-average mobility could boost his fantasy value.
Jimmy Garoppolo was averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season before breaking his foot in a Week 13 game against the Dolphins. The injury ended Garoppolo's season and ended his time with the 49ers. Now Garoppolo is replacing Derek Carr as the starting quarterback for the Raiders. He isn't going to be a high-volume passer in Las Vegas, and he adds minimal rushing value, so at best Garoppolo will be a lower-end QB2 in fantasy this year. But Garoppolo is an underrated passer who's completed better than 67% of his passes in each of the last four seasons and has a career YPA of 8.3 yards. He's no fantasy savior, but he has at least modest value in redraft leagues.