-2023 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2023 Draft Kit
Derrick Henry made fantasy drafters that overlooked him look silly in 2022, finishing the season as the RB4 overall and in points per game (18.3). He finished second in carries and third in rushing yards (23.4 touches per game) while also posting career highs in targets, receptions and yards per route run. The bad offensive situation hardly influenced Henry's fantasy numbers and he did not seem hampered by the foot injury that knocked him out of the second half of the 2021 season. Fading Henry in 2022 was betting on him to hit the wall playing behind a shaky offensive line finally. And that bet did not go well. But another year of a heavy workload combined with the Titans' grim 2023 outlook with major questions on offense, will bring concerns about drafting Henry early in 2023.
No player has scored more touchdowns over the past two seasons, than Austin Ekeler. The Chargers' red-zone machine scored 18 TDs (5 receiving, 13 rushing) a year after scoring 20 touchdowns in 2021. Simply put, those that faded Ekeler due to TD regression narratives got burned this past season. And the touchdowns were just part of Ekeler's RB1 finish in half-point scoring, as he lead all RBs in receptions and targets, which substantially boosted his fantasy numbers. Ekeler was fully unlocked as a receiver with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combining for 13 missed games. Until the Chargers WRs can prove they can stand the test of a 17-game season, Ekeler will remain the focal point of LA's offense. Especially if the Chargers fail to make any worthwhile addition in their backfield, because nobody currently on the depth chart is "forcing" their way onto the field.
Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns running back averaged 5 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came prior to Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won't carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense's overall efficiency making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb also can capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson no longer on the roster. 2022 5th-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB. In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and caught 5-of-6 targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.
Saquon Barkley was finally healthy in 2022 and reaped the rewards of playing in a much better offensive environment. He finished as the RB5 overall and in points per game, as he was able to recapture his explosive upside as both a rusher and receiver. Barkley finished second in overall touches (352) and backfield opportunity share (80%) behind only Josh Jacobs through 17 weeks. He also scored 10 rushing TDs with 23 carries inside the 10-yard line. In 2021, Barkley totaled just 13 red-zone touches all season. Let Barkley's return to glory show that you want to target young impending free agent RBs in improved offensive situations that project to earn high volume with proven records of production.
Josh Jacobs was arguably the most valuable fantasy asset during the fantasy football regular season based on his finish as the RB2 overall in relation to his super cheap draft-day ADP. The market was convinced that Jacobs would become part of a dreaded RB-by-committee under new head coach Josh McDaniels, but that was hardly the case. He was a full-blown bellcow for the Raiders leading the NFL in touches through 17 weeks. The 24-year-old is returning to Las Vegas on the franchise tag after leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards. With a similar cast of characters returning as depth behind him, it's hard to envision the Raiders not heavily leaning on him again as a true featured back.
2022 was a year to forget for the consensus 1.01 in last year's fantasy football drafts. Jonathan Taylor underperformed as the RB30 in 11 games played averaging 12.6 fantasy points as the RB18 when healthy. JT's usage was that of a top-8 running back - 8th in expected points per game, 4th in touches per game (20) - but a lack of touchdowns decimated his fantasy stock in the Colts' anemic offense. After scoring a combined 33 TDs through his 1st two seasons, Taylor scored just four rushing TDs in 2022. From an efficiency standpoint, I'd expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor in 2023. He will be healthier in 2023 and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson's mobility under center should increase JT's yards per carry. When Taylor first returned from injury (Weeks 10-13 in the 2022 season) he ranked as the RB3 overall. And he should experience some positive TD regression entering the final year of his rookie deal. Although it should be noted that with Richardson under center, Taylor won't cannibalize all the goal-line carries. However, a mobile quarterback didn't stop Shane Steichen's running back Miles Sanders from scoring 13 TDs in 2022. Considering the wide talent gap and proven production from Taylor compared to Sanders, I'd bet Steichen's new RB1 will reach double-digit scores even if his rookie QB runs in a few himself.
CMC was traded to the 49ers prior to the team's Week 7 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. But it didn't take long for him to take on a massive role, going for 40-plus fantasy points in just his second game in a San Fran uniform. He would go on to lead all running backs in fantasy points scored from Weeks 8-17 averaging 20.5 fantasy half-points per game (also first). From Week 8 onward (13 games including postseason play), CMC averaged 19.5 points per game and 17.3 expected fantasy points per game. Both would have ranked first among all RBs in 2022. McCaffrey averaged nearly 20 touches per game - 76% average snap share in non-blowout games - while catching nearly five balls per game as PFF's third-highest-graded running back. Even with the 49ers opening the season with a very crowded offense in 2023, McCaffrey while healthy is the best bet to see the highest production among the talented group in the Bay Area.