-2022 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2022 Draft Kit
Nyheim Hines posted career-lows across the receiving board in 2021, but there's hope that with a new quarterback under center that he can bounce back in 2022. No passer targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game. Bodes well for Hines to provide more usable weeks like he did in 2020. That year, Hines finished as RB18 in PPR scoring.
Buffalo invested second round draft capital into a rookie James Cook this offseason, but that's no reason to totally write off last year's starting tailback Devin Singletary. The fourth-year back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season - 17 fantasy points per game. He gained the coaching staff's trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1. Buffalo also didn't let off the Motor Singletary when the team hit the playoffs, with the RB1 averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game from the Wild Card Round through the Divisonal Round. With a proven track record and two years of bell-cow back usage in spurts, don't be surprised when PFF's fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout that emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield.
Tony Pollard is coming off a career-high in rushing attempts (130) and targets (46). Pollard was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Last season he was fourth in yards after contact per attempt behind only Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor (minimum 100 carries, per PFF). He was also first in yards per route run at the position. Pollard offers stand-alone RB3 production as he was the RB30 in fantasy points per game last season. If anything happens to Ezekiell Elliott, Pollard has league-winning upside.
Miles Sanders opened the year playing 60-83% of snaps in the first six games but only averaging 9.5 rushing attempts per game. He did see 3.8 targets per game. He then sustained an ankle injury that landed him on the injured reserve. When he returned from the ankle injury, he was the Eagles' clear lead back (Weeks 11-15), averaging 16.8 carries per game, although his pass game usage dried up (1.8 targets per game). Despite seeing 23 touches inside the 20, he failed to get into the endzone in 2021. While Sanders will see touchdown regression this season, he will still have to deal with Jalen Hurts near the goal line and the looming specters of Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. He could return RB2 production this season, but there's the risk with his injury history and how high-value touches could be divided up in 2022.
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him... J.D. McKissic. That's because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins' three. Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that's not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020. It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received. Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) - the sixth-highest difference at the position. Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB20, 50th overall ADP) he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson's tendency to not check down along with the additions of receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie.
Breece Hall: Top-15 Running Back with Upside? (2022 Fantasy Football)
Elijah Mitchell ran away with the job last season en route to finishing as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. He was third in opportunity share, but his underlying rushing metrics were a lackluster ball of meh. He was 36th in juke rate, 30th in breakaway run rate, and 34th in yards created per touch. With his 7.0% target share and 25th ranking in route participation, he doesn't have the pass game usage to save him if the rushing volume and efficiency aren't there. It's still possible that the 49ers roll it back in 2022 with him as the primary rusher, though, as long as he doesn't face plant in camp.