-2021 NFL Schedule -Strength of Schedule
MOCK DRAFT
Ask the Commish.Com 2021 Draft Kit
While many people are going to try and talk themselves into drafting Moss this season due to the built in discount, there's virtually no upside to drafting the second-year RB. With Singletary and Matt Breida splitting the limited work that's devoted to the RBs in this offense, Moss will have to score 8+ touchdowns this season in order to be on the weekly redraft radar. Unfortunately, due to Allen's involvement in the red zone, there's a very limited path to Moss hitting those touchdown numbers. The discount might seem enticing, but the most likely scenario is that Moss just sits on your bench week after week and takes up space. I'd prefer to go after someone with a bit more upside in that range of my draft.
We think he is a special talent, but everything about his situation makes us nervous. He is the Lions greatest threat to score, but how often will they be in that position? This has the makings of one of the worst collection of skill position players in the league. He is capable of making plays at all levels, in every facet of the game, but how much volume will the Lions actually be able to give him? Their new decision making group has gone out of their way to praise his camp competition and note they intend to use everyone. If he gets the volume and the offense is effective enough, we think he is set up for a big year, but it's a long shot to think that Detroit will be able to compete this season.
We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.
Dallas started Weeks 8 and 9 because both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde were out with injuries, and he produced 97 yards from scrimmage and three total scores between those two games. When Carson and Hyde were healthy this year, Dallas was often left out of the game plan or scratched. His 3.2 yards per carry isn't exciting, but the Seahawks favored Dallas over Travis Homer (knee) in the run game. Dallas' projection for next season can't be determined until we know if Carson and/or Hyde -- both free agents in March -- will return.
It's a shame Lindsay went to a team that's in complete shambles at the moment because he's a fine running back. Most would be shocked to learn that since the start of the 2018 season, Lindsay ranks 10th in rushing yards among running backs. He's averaged 4.78 yards per carry during that time, so it wasn't just volume. Again, Houston is a mess right now, and have a backfield that consists of Lindsay, David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. There are not going to be enough touches to warrant a draft pick on Lindsay.
Williams was supposedly brought into Chicago to play the vacated Cordarrelle Patterson role. It's unlikely that this ever leads to any sort of consistent fantasy production. He can remain on your league's waiver wire.
By now, you've most likely seen the pictures circulating on social media of Gio's quads. While that's incredibly impressive, it unfortunately does not mean a direct correlation to fantasy football success. Bernard should be involved as the reliable pass-catching option out of the backfield for Tom Brady, but his usage isn't going to be predictable enough that he's worth drafting early on. If you're in a Full PPR format and want to take Gio with one of your last picks, it's a fine investment. Otherwise, there are better players to take chances on in that range. My Very Early Projection: 43-136-0 rushing & 44-340-1 receiving.
Conner's coming over from Pittsburgh to take on the vacated Kenyan Drake role, but we know by now that Conner's not exactly 100% of what he used to be. He's coming off of a disappointing season with the Steelers and he'll look to get back on track in this potentially dynamic offense. With splitting work with Edmonds, plus Murray stealing work around the goal line, there's only so much potential here for Conner in this offense. He'll be a fine RB3 for your roster that can start on some bye weeks, but fantasy managers shouldn't be holding out hope for him to be anything more than that.